{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2ef68297-2754-450e-a889-ef6db14e3bcc",
    "symbol": "PFCO",
    "name": "PICTON Credit Opportunities Alternative Fund ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 56.71,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -21.887,
    "architecture_energy": 11.848,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.748,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.374,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 62.62,
        "rotation_up": 24.07,
        "upward_expansion": 22.75,
        "deceleration": 52.18,
        "rotation_down": 27.53,
        "downward_expansion": 49.42
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        9.242596,
        9.238648,
        9.238315,
        9.25023
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 9.25,
    "trend_reference": 9.278713,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.003095,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 8.77994,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053538,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.741524,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.018593,
    "excess_performance": -0.139014,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003095,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002993,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053538,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008809,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.117415,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003422,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018593,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.847826,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4300,
      "relative_activity": 0.836576,
      "balance": 3.847826,
      "dry_up": 1.580739,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.004008,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.020414,
      "from_high_reference": -0.023667,
      "from_low_reference": 0.008609
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.278713,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.77994,
      "structural_low": 9.173368,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.009645,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000969,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.016841,
        "worst_return": 0.002448,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.017623,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008444,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.017623,
        "worst_return": 0.017623,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.033819,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01173,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.033819,
        "worst_return": 0.033819,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.086914,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019405,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.086914,
        "worst_return": 0.086914,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-01-27",
        "end": "2023-03-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002634,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-03-31",
        "end": "2023-04-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033315,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-04-28",
        "end": "2023-06-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0039,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-06-09",
        "end": "2023-07-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.015934,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-07-21",
        "end": "2023-09-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005003,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-22",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.013881,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.16166,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006221,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.005171,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00528,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001066,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.004419,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 7.896719,
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        "typical_volume": 5290.0,
        "trend": 7.775491,
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
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      },
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.528266,
        "energy": 21.987642,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 11885.0,
        "trend": 9.295073,
        "fair_value": 8.736519,
        "relative_strength": -11.482701,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 10240.0,
        "trend": 9.292095,
        "fair_value": 8.74519,
        "relative_strength": -11.090566,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.724991,
        "energy": 42.557392,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 13400,
        "typical_volume": 9830.0,
        "trend": 9.288658,
        "fair_value": 8.754156,
        "relative_strength": -10.362235,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.114076,
        "energy": 33.954317,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.230019,
          9.237134,
          9.238728,
          9.258424
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 9.24,
        "volume": 7100,
        "typical_volume": 9390.0,
        "trend": 9.2861,
        "fair_value": 8.762767,
        "relative_strength": -10.234445,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -49.002515,
        "energy": 30.435639,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.234008,
          9.237482,
          9.237968,
          9.255284
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.24,
        "volume": 7700,
        "typical_volume": 7315.0,
        "trend": 9.28224,
        "fair_value": 8.771378,
        "relative_strength": -9.408475,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.434453,
        "energy": 23.094078,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.236537,
          9.237289,
          9.237528,
          9.25231
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.25,
        "volume": 4300,
        "typical_volume": 5140.0,
        "trend": 9.278713,
        "fair_value": 8.77994,
        "relative_strength": -11.741524,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.88678,
        "energy": 11.84828,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.242596,
          9.238648,
          9.238315,
          9.25023
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}