{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2efae1a2-4587-407f-842b-949577f14a0a", "symbol": "TOKMAN", "name": "Tokmanni Group Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.03, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.499, "architecture_energy": 15.584, "architecture_maturity": 18.454, "architecture_confidence": 65.087, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.15, "rotation_up": 48.85, "upward_expansion": 36.19, "deceleration": 43.75, "rotation_down": 24.79, "downward_expansion": 20.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.178333, 7.120818, 7.094762, 7.097909 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.955, "trend_reference": 7.115121, "distance_from_trend": -0.022504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.242275, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.320952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.101166, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011846, "excess_performance": -0.111729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.320952, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025741, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078105, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051471, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 532190, "relative_activity": 0.700626, "balance": 1.051471, "dry_up": 1.721418, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043134, "annualized_volatility": 0.364259, "from_high_reference": -0.265536, "from_low_reference": 0.134584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.115121, "fair_value_reference": 10.242275, "structural_low": 6.13, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013631, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003441, "regime_survival": 0.214286, "best_return": 0.116085, "worst_return": -0.139798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029817, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.017709, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.289012, "worst_return": -0.204184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019402, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.064931, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.142912, "worst_return": -0.351852, 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"return": -0.163676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010185, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.220886, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139798, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088905, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -47.881564, "energy": 48.077014, "activity_lines": [ 6.91, 6.985, 7.02701, 7.076367 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 7.5, "volume": 948838, "typical_volume": 646194.95, "trend": 7.197393, "fair_value": 10.323662, "relative_strength": -11.967651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.904963, "energy": 8.394232, "activity_lines": [ 7.088667, 7.073182, 7.066277, 7.095807 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 7.5, "volume": 3206827, "typical_volume": 758741.45, "trend": 7.183564, "fair_value": 10.299587, "relative_strength": -10.254708, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.44594, "energy": 27.423873, "activity_lines": [ 7.240667, 7.151182, 7.104237, 7.11533 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 7.105, "volume": 542450, "typical_volume": 759397.25, "trend": 7.146465, "fair_value": 10.271468, "relative_strength": -15.116429, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.5659, "energy": 19.755485, "activity_lines": [ 7.248, 7.15, 7.105738, 7.110261 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 6.955, "volume": 532190, "typical_volume": 759592.35, "trend": 7.115121, "fair_value": 10.242275, "relative_strength": -16.101166, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.499282, "energy": 15.583727, "activity_lines": [ 7.178333, 7.120818, 7.094762, 7.097909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }