{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2efc0bd8-22fc-49dc-abc8-124f52b5bdb5", "symbol": "KSM-F27", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (6A) Short Leveraged TA-35 x2 Monthly", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.378, "architecture_energy": 66.933, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.148, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.37, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 50.33, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.872067, 4.898091, 116.971548, 206.60528 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.878, "trend_reference": 317.851433, "distance_from_trend": -0.984653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1453.340019, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.996644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.202762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990805, "excess_performance": -1.019705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.415033, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.996644, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.992028, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990805, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2195931, "relative_activity": 1.004548, "balance": 0.929612, "dry_up": 1.311088, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.012568, "annualized_volatility": 6.286031, "from_high_reference": -0.99525, "from_low_reference": 0.091275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 317.851433, "fair_value_reference": 1453.340019, "structural_low": 4.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.043421, "positive_rate": 0.340909, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": -0.065385, "regime_survival": 0.931818, "best_return": 0.157123, "worst_return": -0.988662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.104864, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.173697, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.195784, "worst_return": -0.988553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.234107, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.396929, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.002432, "worst_return": -0.991177, "sufficient": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037867, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011698, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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-64.378239, "energy": 66.932801, "activity_lines": [ 4.872067, 4.898091, 116.971548, 206.60528 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }