{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f0bea6a-e00f-4ec1-9a85-9fe5fbe976b5", "symbol": "PAI", "name": "Western Asset Investment Grade Income Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.412, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.277, "architecture_energy": 52.375, "architecture_maturity": 41.047, "architecture_confidence": 91.01, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.66, "rotation_up": 12.75, "upward_expansion": 10.7, "deceleration": 39.56, "rotation_down": 61.53, "downward_expansion": 84.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.92333, 11.967411, 12.002103, 12.038509 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.96, "trend_reference": 12.118609, "distance_from_trend": -0.013088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.490592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.531356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034375, "excess_performance": -0.16, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013088, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.833751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111385, "relative_activity": 1.367365, "balance": 0.833751, "dry_up": 0.904191, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013431, "annualized_volatility": 0.075194, "from_high_reference": -0.064344, "from_low_reference": 0.029382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.118609, "fair_value_reference": 11.490592, "structural_low": 11.618618, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.001514, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.015691, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.074692, "worst_return": -0.049313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015625, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033011, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.102904, "worst_return": -0.100463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002867, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032798, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.085811, "worst_return": -0.093693, "sufficient": 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12.160887, "fair_value": 11.45654, "relative_strength": -9.579917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.514586, "energy": 15.79119, "activity_lines": [ 12.044164, 12.038644, 12.042019, 12.088521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.86, "volume": 83109, "typical_volume": 79245.85, "trend": 12.144439, "fair_value": 11.467293, "relative_strength": -10.056912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.796282, "energy": 41.979984, "activity_lines": [ 11.985086, 12.007969, 12.024977, 12.069109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.84, "volume": 51000, "typical_volume": 78413.15, "trend": 12.129851, "fair_value": 11.478642, "relative_strength": -10.763274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.594134, "energy": 58.541625, "activity_lines": [ 11.926987, 11.975391, 12.007509, 12.049468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.96, "volume": 111385, "typical_volume": 81459.6, "trend": 12.118609, "fair_value": 11.490592, "relative_strength": -12.531356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.277461, "energy": 52.374528, "activity_lines": [ 11.92333, 11.967411, 12.002103, 12.038509 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }