{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f118e8c-2127-4e07-aaa7-0f3d3f59f1da", "symbol": "HUI", "name": "Hydrogen Utopia International PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.07, "architecture_energy": 82.803, "architecture_maturity": 23.288, "architecture_confidence": 82.136, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.54, "rotation_up": 8.45, "upward_expansion": 18.76, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 83.11, "downward_expansion": 96.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.021183, 0.023186, 0.025289, 0.025938 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.02025, "trend_reference": 0.026683, "distance_from_trend": -0.241099, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.037203, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.742546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289474, "excess_performance": -0.340709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241099, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067668, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.455692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227425, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.533109, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289474, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.086131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1001121, "relative_activity": 0.447811, "balance": 0.086131, "dry_up": 0.703128, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145489, "annualized_volatility": 0.645491, "from_high_reference": -0.52907, "from_low_reference": 1.025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.026683, "fair_value_reference": 0.037203, "structural_low": 0.0181, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.078947, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.045653, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.386667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.189474, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.181584, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.571429, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.435556, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.512004, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.190476, "worst_return": -0.526316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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0.0266, 0.026764, 0.027505, 0.027601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0255, "volume": 773812, "typical_volume": 2617604.5, "trend": 0.02815, "fair_value": 0.037771, "relative_strength": 0.76193, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.189765, "energy": 27.316636, "activity_lines": [ 0.026267, 0.026436, 0.027331, 0.027417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 2294732, "typical_volume": 2527537.9, "trend": 0.02765, "fair_value": 0.03754, "relative_strength": -22.086937, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.261711, "energy": 59.611038, "activity_lines": [ 0.024067, 0.025191, 0.026636, 0.026891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01975, "volume": 2217950, "typical_volume": 2557860.2, "trend": 0.027125, "fair_value": 0.03733, "relative_strength": -24.19496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.809096, "energy": 73.734789, "activity_lines": [ 0.022317, 0.024064, 0.025931, 0.026382 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02025, "volume": 1001121, "typical_volume": 2235587.5, "trend": 0.026683, "fair_value": 0.037203, "relative_strength": -22.742546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.069738, "energy": 82.802689, "activity_lines": [ 0.021183, 0.023186, 0.025289, 0.025938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }