{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f148051-e393-4f26-9548-e34661b9d6e5", "symbol": "PNR", "name": "Pentair PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.724, "architecture_energy": 74.918, "architecture_maturity": 62.126, "architecture_confidence": 82.366, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.8, "rotation_up": 11.94, "upward_expansion": 16.79, "deceleration": 39.68, "rotation_down": 69.27, "downward_expansion": 87.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.338682, 69.099202, 72.436501, 76.760623 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 68.89, "trend_reference": 83.662932, "distance_from_trend": -0.176577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.002107, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.750267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.290249, "excess_performance": -0.415874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117953, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099637, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347503, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024164, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.290249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.686145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14718123, "relative_activity": 1.251767, "balance": 1.686145, "dry_up": 1.704494, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081566, "annualized_volatility": 0.41082, "from_high_reference": -0.390737, "from_low_reference": 0.201142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.662932, "fair_value_reference": 87.002107, "structural_low": 57.353729, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.046562, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.024277, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.136142, "worst_return": -0.184523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076521, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052741, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.210618, "worst_return": -0.283698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.064526, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.07117, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.270854, "worst_return": -0.21931, "sufficient": false 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76.055163, 80.707551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.88, "volume": 14954881, "typical_volume": 10760662.15, "trend": 86.098366, "fair_value": 87.009115, "relative_strength": -38.943398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.156288, "energy": 62.332992, "activity_lines": [ 67.973463, 70.687738, 74.448904, 79.118788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.44, "volume": 20209942, "typical_volume": 11388716.95, "trend": 84.783202, "fair_value": 86.994305, "relative_strength": -36.491428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.501337, "energy": 79.428304, "activity_lines": [ 66.225964, 69.494561, 73.224633, 77.785991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.89, "volume": 14718123, "typical_volume": 11757876.7, "trend": 83.662932, "fair_value": 87.002107, "relative_strength": -34.750267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.723789, "energy": 74.918425, "activity_lines": [ 66.338682, 69.099202, 72.436501, 76.760623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }