{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f177694-0b5c-4e94-ac3f-98d8c3300d92", "symbol": "PAT", "name": "PATRIZIA SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.52, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.275, "architecture_energy": 21.602, "architecture_maturity": 71.421, "architecture_confidence": 59.33, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.73, "rotation_up": 19.54, "upward_expansion": 23.67, "deceleration": 67.32, "rotation_down": 57.45, "downward_expansion": 35.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.361333, 7.54993, 7.455115, 7.372383 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.35, "trend_reference": 7.388903, "distance_from_trend": -0.005265, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.16952, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025173, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.092942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051029, "excess_performance": -0.115669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059183, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015349, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.368751, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 202406, "relative_activity": 0.660096, "balance": 1.368751, "dry_up": 0.870062, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055893, "annualized_volatility": 0.307087, "from_high_reference": -0.134197, "from_low_reference": 0.163995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.388903, "fair_value_reference": 7.16952, "structural_low": 6.314461, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039855, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037895, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.049555, "worst_return": -0.191564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.161212, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.177821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.055909, "worst_return": -0.339192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.127563, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.195443, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.010165, "worst_return": -0.176885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154034, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", 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78.375368, "activity_lines": [ 8.036667, 7.756682, 7.437978, 7.409024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.42, "volume": 348685, "typical_volume": 350169.55, "trend": 7.443831, "fair_value": 7.18466, "relative_strength": -1.016569, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.510365, "energy": 50.754328, "activity_lines": [ 7.862667, 7.73325, 7.453508, 7.406521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.16, "volume": 231409, "typical_volume": 334720.75, "trend": 7.425595, "fair_value": 7.17842, "relative_strength": -5.351259, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.781105, "energy": 15.401222, "activity_lines": [ 7.628667, 7.654931, 7.446098, 7.388209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.24, "volume": 284653, "typical_volume": 317827.9, "trend": 7.409708, "fair_value": 7.173253, "relative_strength": -6.124481, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.336209, "energy": 9.204952, "activity_lines": [ 7.458667, 7.592087, 7.446368, 7.376235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.35, "volume": 202406, "typical_volume": 306631.15, "trend": 7.388903, "fair_value": 7.16952, "relative_strength": -7.092942, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.27496, "energy": 21.60194, "activity_lines": [ 7.361333, 7.54993, 7.455115, 7.372383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }