{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f1ba7a3-4a63-4997-8818-6dc6cda1181c", "symbol": "KER", "name": "Kering SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 53.346, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.459, "architecture_energy": 49.612, "architecture_maturity": 25.028, "architecture_confidence": 48.033, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.51, "rotation_up": 56.14, "upward_expansion": 52.94, "deceleration": 30.57, "rotation_down": 29.35, "downward_expansion": 27.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 270.643341, 264.495459, 258.032161, 257.121645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 288.450012, "trend_reference": 259.198704, "distance_from_trend": 0.112853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 280.29837, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029082, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.398257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119977, "excess_performance": -0.05427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112853, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048001, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21034, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044513, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119977, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.681692, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1137, "relative_activity": 1.48978, "balance": 3.681692, "dry_up": 1.743645, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061564, "annualized_volatility": 0.465551, "from_high_reference": -0.176019, "from_low_reference": 0.381622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 259.198704, "fair_value_reference": 280.29837, "structural_low": 224.287109, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020281, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.011059, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.168251, "worst_return": -0.141874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01109, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000912, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.577712, "worst_return": -0.32038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118677, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.493777, "worst_return": -0.271875, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-08-07", "close": 288.450012, "volume": 1137, "typical_volume": 763.2, "trend": 259.198704, "fair_value": 280.29837, "relative_strength": -13.398257, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.459441, "energy": 49.611816, "activity_lines": [ 270.643341, 264.495459, 258.032161, 257.121645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }