{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f1ce90e-1b6e-404f-89c8-af521036f12a", "symbol": "ELABS", "name": "Elliptic Laboratories ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.043, "architecture_energy": 64.519, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.751, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 13.58, "upward_expansion": 11.66, "deceleration": 42.23, "rotation_down": 74.46, "downward_expansion": 89.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.506, 2.643182, 2.813214, 2.964688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.43, "trend_reference": 3.356833, "distance_from_trend": -0.276103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.583173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.77039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.131291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.445205, "excess_performance": -0.570199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.276103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.77039, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.631313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049231, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.445205, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 679401, "relative_activity": 0.529823, "balance": 0.618827, "dry_up": 0.510627, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145774, "annualized_volatility": 0.785052, "from_high_reference": -0.808962, "from_low_reference": 0.027484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.356833, "fair_value_reference": 10.583173, "structural_low": 2.365, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.038817, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.054516, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.33829, "worst_return": -0.486538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011696, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.036792, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.394165, "worst_return": -0.518317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.207527, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.225112, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.596715, "worst_return": -0.627273, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020344, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 1600695.85, "trend": 3.619667, "fair_value": 10.773462, "relative_strength": -64.10153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.164873, "energy": 57.37394, "activity_lines": [ 2.656, 2.776455, 2.901476, 3.103796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.505, "volume": 547833, "typical_volume": 1456114.35, "trend": 3.4715, "fair_value": 10.677468, "relative_strength": -63.231206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.109156, "energy": 62.450284, "activity_lines": [ 2.578667, 2.714, 2.859929, 3.031882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.43, "volume": 679401, "typical_volume": 1282316.6, "trend": 3.356833, "fair_value": 10.583173, "relative_strength": -63.131291, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.043184, "energy": 64.51891, "activity_lines": [ 2.506, 2.643182, 2.813214, 2.964688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }