{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f1fb714-03f1-44ca-9d8a-8a129877b4bb", "symbol": "3663", "name": "ThinTech Materials Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.729, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.866, "architecture_energy": 39.01, "architecture_maturity": 8.42, "architecture_confidence": 68.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.35, "rotation_up": 15.11, "upward_expansion": 21.2, "deceleration": 52.81, "rotation_down": 62.19, "downward_expansion": 48.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.106666, 68.221818, 71.89381, 71.589678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 64.599998, "trend_reference": 70.236667, "distance_from_trend": -0.080253, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.112306, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.031402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119584, "excess_performance": -0.321788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080253, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153078, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036234, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119584, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.082948, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3224125, "relative_activity": 0.201348, "balance": 2.082948, "dry_up": 0.195552, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21267, "annualized_volatility": 0.910318, "from_high_reference": -0.311301, "from_low_reference": 0.660668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.236667, "fair_value_reference": 58.112306, "structural_low": 51.099998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087083, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.083612, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.157556, "worst_return": -0.102079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.165698, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125389, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066763, "worst_return": -0.172968, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.094477, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.376181, "worst_return": -0.206096, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -29.127122, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.754409, "energy": 26.118565, "activity_lines": [ 67.226667, 72.107273, 73.75381, 72.424087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.099998, "volume": 2429591, "typical_volume": 17833686.6, "trend": 69.84, "fair_value": 57.933967, "relative_strength": -24.239663, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.510321, "energy": 34.078289, "activity_lines": [ 63.873333, 69.701818, 72.682381, 71.927742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 64.599998, "volume": 3224125, "typical_volume": 16012666.9, "trend": 70.236667, "fair_value": 58.112306, "relative_strength": -23.031402, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.866053, "energy": 39.009817, "activity_lines": [ 63.106666, 68.221818, 71.89381, 71.589678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }