{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f22aea0-5a20-444f-9171-1cea7579275f", "symbol": "CRIS", "name": "Curis Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.135, "architecture_energy": 76.335, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.73, "rotation_up": 20.71, "upward_expansion": 16.62, "deceleration": 41.89, "rotation_down": 69.94, "downward_expansion": 94.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.604667, 5.428727, 7.299324, 9.360951 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.02, "trend_reference": 12.432, "distance_from_trend": -0.676641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 93.809077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.957147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -82.36776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.804854, "excess_performance": -0.992308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.676641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.312359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.957147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.823678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.804854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 373205, "relative_activity": 0.03571, "balance": 0.47502, "dry_up": 0.035332, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.548705, "annualized_volatility": 0.960266, "from_high_reference": -0.896923, "from_low_reference": 0.112957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.432, "fair_value_reference": 93.809077, "structural_low": 3.612, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 52, "median_return": -0.096238, "positive_rate": 0.288462, "directional_follow_through": 0.711538, "median_excess_return": -0.088706, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.95935, "worst_return": -0.623992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.253222, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.2362, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.529412, "worst_return": -0.644951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.489457, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.499796, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.198668, "worst_return": -0.739727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -79.253083, "energy": 87.505037, "activity_lines": [ 5.669733, 7.012764, 8.817962, 11.047226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.89, "volume": 494404, "typical_volume": 10494732.3, "trend": 13.3372, "fair_value": 97.281897, "relative_strength": -78.711318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.855261, "energy": 81.146721, "activity_lines": [ 5.208933, 6.439709, 8.265714, 10.46717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.02, "volume": 306062, "typical_volume": 10489993.2, "trend": 12.8492, "fair_value": 95.511513, "relative_strength": -77.600412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.217948, "energy": 80.584877, "activity_lines": [ 5.0268, 5.979636, 7.796848, 9.930576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.02, "volume": 373205, "typical_volume": 10450938.95, "trend": 12.432, "fair_value": 93.809077, "relative_strength": -82.36776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.135322, "energy": 76.335446, "activity_lines": [ 4.604667, 5.428727, 7.299324, 9.360951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }