{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f2469de-da15-4e35-bad5-b7eeccd5bc3c", "symbol": "C1CL34", "name": "Carnival Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 72.864, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.813, "architecture_energy": 11.471, "architecture_maturity": 22.447, "architecture_confidence": 54.756, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.28, "rotation_up": 13.3, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 64.43, "rotation_down": 47.58, "downward_expansion": 55.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 140.274231, 141.924894, 140.620119, 140.403523 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 147.0, "trend_reference": 142.887474, "distance_from_trend": 0.028782, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 118.936077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235958, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.574066, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16737, "excess_performance": -0.110322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216676, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.328004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 330, "relative_activity": 0.100593, "balance": 0.328004, "dry_up": 0.109204, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064145, "annualized_volatility": 0.425493, "from_high_reference": -0.218511, "from_low_reference": 0.225817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.887474, "fair_value_reference": 118.936077, "structural_low": 119.919998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.093154, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.118092, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.387523, "worst_return": -0.1936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.183404, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.149558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.421284, "worst_return": -0.186015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.189835, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.103391, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.579141, "worst_return": -0.334526, 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"direction": -38.473347, "energy": 22.211078, "activity_lines": [ 141.138145, 143.004989, 139.686103, 141.242045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.444138, "volume": 325, "typical_volume": 3506.8, "trend": 144.489062, "fair_value": 118.141987, "relative_strength": -16.902038, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.910054, "energy": 35.119074, "activity_lines": [ 136.806961, 141.331952, 139.268419, 140.388563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.378554, "volume": 507, "typical_volume": 3339.5, "trend": 143.657608, "fair_value": 118.516065, "relative_strength": -12.509546, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.048126, "energy": 30.364928, "activity_lines": [ 137.376307, 141.169096, 139.713174, 140.187885 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 147.0, "volume": 330, "typical_volume": 3280.55, "trend": 142.887474, "fair_value": 118.936077, "relative_strength": -5.574066, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.813357, "energy": 11.470587, "activity_lines": [ 140.274231, 141.924894, 140.620119, 140.403523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }