{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f28e8cb-3fb3-4b1c-ba83-ccf76d4743c0", "symbol": "TRC", "name": "TRC Construction Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.191, "architecture_energy": 18.194, "architecture_maturity": 52.213, "architecture_confidence": 84.396, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.09, "rotation_up": 24.0, "upward_expansion": 54.53, "deceleration": 89.63, "rotation_down": 27.64, "downward_expansion": 18.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.559333, 0.575273, 0.556381, 0.520753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.54, "trend_reference": 0.483, "distance_from_trend": 0.118012, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.725489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.687045, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.433818, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.35, "excess_performance": 0.157675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118012, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117194, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.687045, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142882, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.336558, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.35, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.110312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1799600, "relative_activity": 0.088068, "balance": 7.110312, "dry_up": 0.102716, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172365, "annualized_volatility": 0.897491, "from_high_reference": -0.289474, "from_low_reference": 0.928571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.483, "fair_value_reference": 1.725489, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.048611, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076886, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.592593, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.113636, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.134706, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.300001, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.155172, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.538462, "worst_return": -0.205882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.267857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.566667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.275362, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.170855, "energy": 35.933971, "activity_lines": [ 0.599333, 0.599636, 0.529524, 0.498172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.58, "volume": 3647500, "typical_volume": 20881140.0, "trend": 0.473333, "fair_value": 1.795156, "relative_strength": 2.254769, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.443727, "energy": 32.970714, "activity_lines": [ 0.594667, 0.599273, 0.539095, 0.505204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.57, "volume": 1693100, "typical_volume": 20602780.0, "trend": 0.476333, "fair_value": 1.772019, "relative_strength": 0.518556, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.577111, "energy": 29.962426, "activity_lines": [ 0.586667, 0.592909, 0.546905, 0.511441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.56, "volume": 1255500, "typical_volume": 20494045.0, "trend": 0.479333, "fair_value": 1.748818, "relative_strength": 0.191972, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.776916, "energy": 20.685975, "activity_lines": [ 0.576, 0.584909, 0.552952, 0.516839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.54, "volume": 1799600, "typical_volume": 20434305.0, "trend": 0.483, "fair_value": 1.725489, "relative_strength": -2.433818, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.190682, "energy": 18.193529, "activity_lines": [ 0.559333, 0.575273, 0.556381, 0.520753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }