{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f2d7a6d-5e2e-43db-8742-e8d748a2a3d0", "symbol": "CCN", "name": "Caisse R\u00e9gionale de Cr\u00e9dit Agricole Mutuel de Normandie-Seine Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 coop\u00e9rative", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.029, "architecture_energy": 22.834, "architecture_maturity": 60.751, "architecture_confidence": 94.55, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.34, "rotation_up": 20.99, "upward_expansion": 55.04, "deceleration": 93.29, "rotation_down": 27.79, "downward_expansion": 21.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 162.713334, 164.814545, 162.516184, 157.242886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 162.940002, "trend_reference": 150.963168, "distance_from_trend": 0.079336, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 98.605108, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.65245, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.55534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122532, "excess_performance": 0.069221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079336, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.65245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018807, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085553, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.619249, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3507, "relative_activity": 1.092217, "balance": 2.619249, "dry_up": 0.62062, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041986, "annualized_volatility": 0.274763, "from_high_reference": -0.099779, "from_low_reference": 0.508562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 150.963168, "fair_value_reference": 98.605108, "structural_low": 123.356397, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003895, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005439, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.207965, "worst_return": -0.094118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.12303, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.053831, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.279745, "worst_return": -0.069412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.126604, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.168639, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.567794, "worst_return": -0.094226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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64.262708, "energy": 64.411765, "activity_lines": [ 170.793332, 167.514547, 157.964745, 152.28013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 162.5, "volume": 1545, "typical_volume": 3865.15, "trend": 145.596795, "fair_value": 96.27969, "relative_strength": 15.876353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.474741, "energy": 46.547534, "activity_lines": [ 167.194666, 167.386819, 159.08228, 153.481326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 161.0, "volume": 1633, "typical_volume": 3716.75, "trend": 147.200211, "fair_value": 96.845016, "relative_strength": 13.937662, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.84572, "energy": 33.531093, "activity_lines": [ 164.329333, 166.768727, 159.960394, 154.475081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 162.5, "volume": 1349, "typical_volume": 3576.95, "trend": 148.820394, "fair_value": 97.4199, "relative_strength": 13.81606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.802116, "energy": 30.036699, "activity_lines": [ 163.163999, 166.197454, 160.889617, 155.462164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 163.5, "volume": 1482, "typical_volume": 3285.45, "trend": 150.01841, "fair_value": 98.00705, "relative_strength": 12.073229, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.989821, "energy": 27.86569, "activity_lines": [ 162.965333, 165.62509, 161.791913, 156.409235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 162.940002, "volume": 3507, "typical_volume": 3210.9, "trend": 150.963168, "fair_value": 98.605108, "relative_strength": 8.55534, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.028522, "energy": 22.833504, "activity_lines": [ 162.713334, 164.814545, 162.516184, 157.242886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }