{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f359e8e-5fb0-48a0-96f2-7928be927eab", "symbol": "601098", "name": "China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.458, "architecture_energy": 24.445, "architecture_maturity": 73.649, "architecture_confidence": 71.449, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.56, "rotation_up": 36.41, "upward_expansion": 21.22, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 22.12, "downward_expansion": 55.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.442667, 10.213255, 10.4381, 10.59364 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.43, "trend_reference": 10.787206, "distance_from_trend": -0.033114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.690203, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1078, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.59482, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055254, "excess_performance": -0.01205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039401, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1078, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053485, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.048836, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66136066, "relative_activity": 1.696073, "balance": 1.048836, "dry_up": 1.737302, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051145, "annualized_volatility": 0.215112, "from_high_reference": -0.209961, "from_low_reference": 0.115333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.787206, "fair_value_reference": 11.690203, "structural_low": 9.351471, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.004492, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.01461, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.130588, "worst_return": -0.057708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016884, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041948, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.235988, "worst_return": -0.127848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.124096, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.134669, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245821, "worst_return": -0.12602, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 10.17, "volume": 74479485, "typical_volume": 36950030.55, "trend": 10.819206, "fair_value": 11.687299, "relative_strength": -8.00152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.524913, "energy": 47.495047, "activity_lines": [ 9.978823, 10.030389, 10.430635, 10.607452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.99, "volume": 72678079, "typical_volume": 37903364.25, "trend": 10.814873, "fair_value": 11.689759, "relative_strength": -0.542378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.955733, "energy": 16.390447, "activity_lines": [ 10.356146, 10.171913, 10.4607, 10.618471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.43, "volume": 66136066, "typical_volume": 38993646.45, "trend": 10.787206, "fair_value": 11.690203, "relative_strength": -7.59482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.458215, "energy": 24.444877, "activity_lines": [ 10.442667, 10.213255, 10.4381, 10.59364 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }