{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f36d681-bbc3-41d3-81f5-e08b535fddf8", "symbol": "MEXX", "name": "DIREXION DAILY MSCI MEXICO BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.228, "architecture_energy": 14.765, "architecture_maturity": 21.497, "architecture_confidence": 66.779, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.93, "rotation_up": 22.45, "upward_expansion": 14.44, "deceleration": 36.38, "rotation_down": 36.64, "downward_expansion": 62.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.329187, 29.129922, 29.765693, 30.1167 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.5007, "trend_reference": 30.887968, "distance_from_trend": -0.012538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.816396, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.65392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174714, "excess_performance": -0.300339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058171, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006539, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.274279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71209, "relative_activity": 0.559955, "balance": 1.274279, "dry_up": 0.450089, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109931, "annualized_volatility": 0.687122, "from_high_reference": -0.22242, "from_low_reference": 0.830391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.887968, "fair_value_reference": 21.816396, "structural_low": 23.553072, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.032636, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.024477, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.465016, "worst_return": -0.378256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033794, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.009966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.426487, "worst_return": -0.451607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076907, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.052697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.602834, "worst_return": -0.5924, 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0.049584, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043147, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.219848, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11104, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.8973, "volume": 69518, "typical_volume": 174818.0, "trend": 30.456146, "fair_value": 21.810957, "relative_strength": -3.49535, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.445253, "energy": 31.214441, "activity_lines": [ 28.863949, 29.453359, 30.023793, 30.498429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.0702, "volume": 42412, "typical_volume": 163010.2, "trend": 30.575858, "fair_value": 21.808192, "relative_strength": -1.944812, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.64788, "energy": 46.671953, "activity_lines": [ 28.408354, 29.07919, 29.828985, 30.344497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.2922, "volume": 37593, "typical_volume": 144843.75, "trend": 30.617296, "fair_value": 21.78613, "relative_strength": -1.109213, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.648581, "energy": 42.934558, "activity_lines": [ 28.22518, 28.849095, 29.702637, 30.197164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.63, "volume": 77736, "typical_volume": 132991.15, "trend": 30.760594, "fair_value": 21.795408, "relative_strength": 1.770421, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.56991, "energy": 30.257483, "activity_lines": [ 28.666933, 28.899511, 29.702725, 30.133468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.5007, "volume": 71209, "typical_volume": 127169.2, "trend": 30.887968, "fair_value": 21.816396, "relative_strength": 0.65392, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.228181, "energy": 14.764907, "activity_lines": [ 29.329187, 29.129922, 29.765693, 30.1167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }