{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f36fe4b-baba-461f-b036-3059c3f76094", "symbol": "SE-ED", "name": "SE-Education Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.437, "architecture_energy": 89.976, "architecture_maturity": 21.452, "architecture_confidence": 78.689, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.93, "rotation_up": 8.17, "upward_expansion": 19.95, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 84.41, "downward_expansion": 95.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.422667, 1.509273, 1.581619, 1.607699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.32, "trend_reference": 1.636, "distance_from_trend": -0.193154, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.940128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.319633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.735759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.392325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193154, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022505, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.319633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.061303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246300, "relative_activity": 7.064391, "balance": 0.061303, "dry_up": 2.637315, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07634, "annualized_volatility": 0.227081, "from_high_reference": -0.308901, "from_low_reference": 0.064516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.636, "fair_value_reference": 1.940128, "structural_low": 1.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.007899, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.093567, "worst_return": -0.032258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004464, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043195, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.037267, "worst_return": -0.061538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068761, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.058067, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.185185, "worst_return": -0.136905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036082, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07362, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005917, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006452, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089655, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.22, "volume": 85600, "typical_volume": 83495.0, "trend": 2.229333, "fair_value": 2.094679, "relative_strength": 2.328108, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.158904, 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1.677333, 1.681273, 1.673619, 1.670667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.68, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 30130.0, "trend": 1.662667, "fair_value": 1.964744, "relative_strength": -17.488825, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.54063, "energy": 13.505295, "activity_lines": [ 1.678, 1.681818, 1.674524, 1.671613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.55, "volume": 47200, "typical_volume": 30755.0, "trend": 1.664, "fair_value": 1.960321, "relative_strength": -23.715469, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.463593, "energy": 34.42168, "activity_lines": [ 1.633333, 1.658182, 1.663143, 1.664344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.54, "volume": 9200, "typical_volume": 26615.0, "trend": 1.661667, "fair_value": 1.955962, "relative_strength": -24.636478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.940992, "energy": 66.369879, "activity_lines": [ 1.595333, 1.634545, 1.651286, 1.656344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.45, "volume": 93800, "typical_volume": 27355.0, "trend": 1.655333, "fair_value": 1.950897, "relative_strength": -28.55727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.623885, "energy": 84.580731, "activity_lines": [ 1.538, 1.596545, 1.631381, 1.642688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.44, "volume": 18500, "typical_volume": 28215.0, "trend": 1.647, "fair_value": 1.945897, "relative_strength": -27.768256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.083245, "energy": 84.5773, "activity_lines": [ 1.493333, 1.561091, 1.611714, 1.628796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.32, "volume": 246300, "typical_volume": 34865.0, "trend": 1.636, "fair_value": 1.940128, "relative_strength": -32.735759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.436633, "energy": 89.976407, "activity_lines": [ 1.422667, 1.509273, 1.581619, 1.607699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }