{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f37c1ef-d7ec-47b7-9215-548e89618c5e", "symbol": "2749", "name": "Jp-Holdings,Inc.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 84.893, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 13.25, "architecture_energy": 27.3, "architecture_maturity": 32.115, "architecture_confidence": 44.418, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.66, "rotation_up": 46.23, "upward_expansion": 34.92, "deceleration": 47.17, "rotation_down": 14.08, "downward_expansion": 43.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 643.2, 630.454545, 623.161905, 637.004661 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 660.0, "trend_reference": 659.054447, "distance_from_trend": 0.001435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 567.878343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162221, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.356605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101789, "excess_performance": -0.263523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001435, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012548, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153566, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.516409, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1376100, "relative_activity": 1.822758, "balance": 2.516409, "dry_up": 1.9072, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034848, "annualized_volatility": 0.210291, "from_high_reference": -0.157011, "from_low_reference": 0.172291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 659.054447, "fair_value_reference": 567.878343, "structural_low": 563.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00597, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.002335, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.220216, "worst_return": -0.150307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050136, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.123197, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.325581, "worst_return": -0.192424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.172963, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.085167, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.365796, "worst_return": -0.167675, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14697, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119328, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-27", 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650.0, "volume": 1612700, "typical_volume": 798915.0, "trend": 660.336015, "fair_value": 565.622302, "relative_strength": -20.419381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.090292, "energy": 16.904437, "activity_lines": [ 632.8, 621.6, 620.480952, 637.026339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 660.0, "volume": 1376100, "typical_volume": 754955.0, "trend": 659.054447, "fair_value": 567.878343, "relative_strength": -15.356605, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.249813, "energy": 27.299966, "activity_lines": [ 643.2, 630.454545, 623.161905, 637.004661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }