{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f42657a-ce6b-40aa-bd92-ef354dc893ee", "symbol": "HAIL", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P KENSHO SMART MOBILITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.191, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.78, "architecture_energy": 16.693, "architecture_maturity": 40.261, "architecture_confidence": 87.696, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.55, "rotation_up": 20.62, "upward_expansion": 43.22, "deceleration": 79.51, "rotation_down": 39.83, "downward_expansion": 34.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.021847, 37.511084, 38.200378, 37.497071 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.5069, "trend_reference": 36.709483, "distance_from_trend": 0.048963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.24194, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.625064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089929, "excess_performance": -0.035696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038787, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089929, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11371, "relative_activity": 0.744309, "balance": 1.096969, "dry_up": 1.487359, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070086, "annualized_volatility": 0.28572, "from_high_reference": -0.138306, "from_low_reference": 0.258194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.709483, "fair_value_reference": 30.24194, "structural_low": 30.6049, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05313, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005166, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.081416, "worst_return": -0.093066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.036134, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.029389, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.254769, "worst_return": -0.113929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.107961, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.300108, "worst_return": -0.084185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 37.655714, 38.731268, 38.334187, 37.45712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.429, "volume": 2313, "typical_volume": 15012.65, "trend": 36.577281, "fair_value": 30.181675, "relative_strength": -7.175158, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.681877, "energy": 18.301296, "activity_lines": [ 36.738207, 38.006737, 38.172937, 37.386217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.4329, "volume": 4232, "typical_volume": 14982.15, "trend": 36.644286, "fair_value": 30.196382, "relative_strength": -5.583732, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.50406, "energy": 23.513274, "activity_lines": [ 36.495927, 37.533137, 38.095893, 37.376902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.5069, "volume": 11371, "typical_volume": 15277.25, "trend": 36.709483, "fair_value": 30.24194, "relative_strength": -3.625064, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.780487, "energy": 16.693223, "activity_lines": [ 37.021847, 37.511084, 38.200378, 37.497071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }