{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f46edf2-d234-4166-bc42-ed248b189344", "symbol": "600598", "name": "Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.765, "architecture_energy": 56.182, "architecture_maturity": 69.538, "architecture_confidence": 83.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.69, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 14.92, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 48.96, "downward_expansion": 76.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.004667, 12.040909, 13.057703, 13.746769 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.06, "trend_reference": 14.464689, "distance_from_trend": -0.166245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.099384, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.444616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.284789, "excess_performance": -0.241585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041163, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620278, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99733605, "relative_activity": 0.905063, "balance": 0.620278, "dry_up": 1.069622, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075585, "annualized_volatility": 0.456031, "from_high_reference": -0.317919, "from_low_reference": 0.137736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.464689, "fair_value_reference": 13.099384, "structural_low": 10.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.030967, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": 0.029456, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.091636, "worst_return": -0.048878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067416, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.042526, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.101981, "worst_return": -0.03059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01264, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.046275, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.084135, "worst_return": -0.03059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 11.592667, 12.472118, 13.689494, 14.23322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.91, "volume": 134177746, "typical_volume": 121853539.7, "trend": 14.617144, "fair_value": 13.103944, "relative_strength": -14.518791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.8213, "energy": 85.697204, "activity_lines": [ 11.616, 12.237778, 13.438599, 14.05322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.35, "volume": 101673238, "typical_volume": 114472132.55, "trend": 14.542859, "fair_value": 13.103888, "relative_strength": -11.423414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.907375, "energy": 63.218605, "activity_lines": [ 11.910667, 12.145273, 13.251263, 13.906953 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.06, "volume": 99733605, "typical_volume": 110195264.35, "trend": 14.464689, "fair_value": 13.099384, "relative_strength": -15.444616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.765129, "energy": 56.182409, "activity_lines": [ 12.004667, 12.040909, 13.057703, 13.746769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }