{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f4eca43-9456-4926-ae42-12cb905b79fb", "symbol": "NXG", "name": "NexGen Energy Ltd.", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.152, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.465, "architecture_energy": 47.453, "architecture_maturity": 25.471, "architecture_confidence": 89.525, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.91, "rotation_up": 21.64, "upward_expansion": 6.73, "deceleration": 53.11, "rotation_down": 55.6, "downward_expansion": 80.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.567333, 13.698545, 14.542952, 15.172925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.4, "trend_reference": 15.954333, "distance_from_trend": -0.097424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.749423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.159817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076923, "excess_performance": -0.140629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006054, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.104239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3284668, "relative_activity": 1.210703, "balance": 1.104239, "dry_up": 1.383906, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090385, "annualized_volatility": 0.411785, "from_high_reference": -0.296531, "from_low_reference": 0.442886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.954333, "fair_value_reference": 11.749423, "structural_low": 12.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041215, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.02548, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.296909, "worst_return": -0.09434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.202306, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.195772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.361647, "worst_return": 0.199324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.653716, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.666113, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.767053, "worst_return": 0.230608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.580479, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.483324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.993243, "worst_return": 0.167715, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.231656, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143076, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208014, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049884, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.271557, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.104673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051852, 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-67.060738, "energy": 69.661566, "activity_lines": [ 14.036667, 14.539273, 15.442048, 15.870323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.56, "volume": 3579889, "typical_volume": 3019667.45, "trend": 16.073333, "fair_value": 11.624551, "relative_strength": -13.907764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.833178, "energy": 81.145934, "activity_lines": [ 13.536667, 14.088, 15.106762, 15.642968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.16, "volume": 3366629, "typical_volume": 3002538.3, "trend": 16.038333, "fair_value": 11.664167, "relative_strength": -9.768939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.937589, "energy": 73.458631, "activity_lines": [ 13.316667, 13.827636, 14.854667, 15.455011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.27, "volume": 4787100, "typical_volume": 2899666.8, "trend": 16.004, "fair_value": 11.703077, "relative_strength": -11.366146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.64057, "energy": 68.529426, "activity_lines": [ 13.231333, 13.645455, 14.634667, 15.276409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.4, "volume": 3284668, "typical_volume": 2713025.15, "trend": 15.954333, "fair_value": 11.749423, "relative_strength": -7.159817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.464685, "energy": 47.452549, "activity_lines": [ 13.567333, 13.698545, 14.542952, 15.172925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }