{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f50bdb7-b39c-41e2-8eac-1a8947661940", "symbol": "600015", "name": "Hua Xia Bank Co., Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.325, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.308, "architecture_energy": 22.204, "architecture_maturity": 32.463, "architecture_confidence": 60.861, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.63, "rotation_up": 38.08, "upward_expansion": 19.59, "deceleration": 44.04, "rotation_down": 21.04, "downward_expansion": 53.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.752071, 6.654026, 6.702498, 6.762112 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.73, "trend_reference": 6.769201, "distance_from_trend": -0.005791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.430559, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.199597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061514, "excess_performance": 0.104718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00631, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014215, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.492368, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 361687193, "relative_activity": 1.259861, "balance": 1.492368, "dry_up": 1.463583, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038795, "annualized_volatility": 0.20702, "from_high_reference": -0.168351, "from_low_reference": 0.082659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.769201, "fair_value_reference": 6.430559, "structural_low": 6.216178, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011304, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017849, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.13957, "worst_return": -0.048214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034228, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172662, "worst_return": -0.043936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007752, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.041717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.047709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01261, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.108679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", 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"energy": 69.411386, "activity_lines": [ 6.468477, 6.562103, 6.71487, 6.755785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.693611, "volume": 434665634, "typical_volume": 278862048.9, "trend": 6.761782, "fair_value": 6.405218, "relative_strength": 0.521643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.44608, "energy": 36.10701, "activity_lines": [ 6.547834, 6.576256, 6.699987, 6.75128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.97, "volume": 539260921, "typical_volume": 288125124.75, "trend": 6.770312, "fair_value": 6.418714, "relative_strength": 4.637063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.557233, "energy": 14.205582, "activity_lines": [ 6.71508, 6.638959, 6.712218, 6.764713 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.73, "volume": 361687193, "typical_volume": 287084892.95, "trend": 6.769201, "fair_value": 6.430559, "relative_strength": -1.199597, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.308353, "energy": 22.204483, "activity_lines": [ 6.752071, 6.654026, 6.702498, 6.762112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }