{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f50f04c-5b45-4e77-8572-084ce557dc96", "symbol": "XPXJ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Pacific ex Japan Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.887, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.299, "architecture_energy": 71.007, "architecture_maturity": 5.649, "architecture_confidence": 72.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.51, "rotation_up": 76.7, "upward_expansion": 55.97, "deceleration": 18.3, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 30.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 7114.1, 7007.309091, 6958.914286, 6962.921505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7283.0, "trend_reference": 6965.3, "distance_from_trend": 0.045612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6079.014999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.079633, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049197, "excess_performance": -0.002038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004686, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.468483, "dry_up": 0.132247, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015859, "annualized_volatility": 0.152049, "from_high_reference": -0.181165, "from_low_reference": 0.130374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6965.3, "fair_value_reference": 6079.014999, "structural_low": 6636.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008077, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.033163, "worst_return": -0.033118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004822, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072087, "worst_return": -0.065767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094964, "worst_return": -0.023941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7094.0, "volume": 1198, "typical_volume": 11746.25, "trend": 6944.75, "fair_value": 6065.761794, "relative_strength": -4.438391, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.823952, "energy": 35.66057, "activity_lines": [ 7006.066667, 6936.527273, 6924.697619, 6941.098925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7283.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10544.7, "trend": 6965.3, "fair_value": 6079.014999, "relative_strength": -2.079633, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.29886, "energy": 71.006547, "activity_lines": [ 7114.1, 7007.309091, 6958.914286, 6962.921505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }