{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f522c15-7795-4937-bf72-ae9d9dd515a6", "symbol": "RMBS", "name": "Rambus Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.056, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.122, "architecture_energy": 48.977, "architecture_maturity": 12.764, "architecture_confidence": 79.198, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.14, "rotation_up": 15.13, "upward_expansion": 25.06, "deceleration": 50.06, "rotation_down": 66.79, "downward_expansion": 54.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.315333, 106.739818, 117.80731, 116.385258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 101.52, "trend_reference": 114.009833, "distance_from_trend": -0.10955, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.01891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.853593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052101, "excess_performance": -0.239554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10955, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.51154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052101, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.305375, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10361163, "relative_activity": 0.764109, "balance": 0.305375, "dry_up": 1.051619, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221499, "annualized_volatility": 0.838047, "from_high_reference": -0.416887, "from_low_reference": 0.511774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.009833, "fair_value_reference": 73.01891, "structural_low": 77.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.031862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084609, "worst_return": -0.020885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.244792, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.08616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.36182, "worst_return": 0.127764, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.719671, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.590948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.904124, "worst_return": 0.535217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.189456, 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"2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000938, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.292333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.20655, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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[ 110.999333, 122.549455, 124.432857, 119.813785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.01, "volume": 11375474, "typical_volume": 13014496.4, "trend": 114.0135, "fair_value": 72.464551, "relative_strength": -14.767229, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.240097, "energy": 37.103483, "activity_lines": [ 104.178667, 116.556364, 122.227833, 118.656355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.03, "volume": 19719575, "typical_volume": 13474069.7, "trend": 113.7385, "fair_value": 72.703397, "relative_strength": -19.640186, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.529845, "energy": 52.975936, "activity_lines": [ 98.708667, 110.222182, 119.510952, 117.173548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.52, "volume": 10361163, "typical_volume": 13559803.7, "trend": 114.009833, "fair_value": 73.01891, "relative_strength": -14.853593, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.121713, "energy": 48.977132, "activity_lines": [ 98.315333, 106.739818, 117.80731, 116.385258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }