{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f526145-eaf2-4e10-9209-48087c9da5b0", "symbol": "XUCS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Staples UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.366, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.223, "architecture_energy": 17.413, "architecture_maturity": 17.12, "architecture_confidence": 43.139, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.2, "rotation_up": 39.84, "upward_expansion": 68.9, "deceleration": 63.33, "rotation_down": 22.92, "downward_expansion": 4.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.430333, 50.378545, 50.365667, 50.364201 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 50.400002, "trend_reference": 50.339446, "distance_from_trend": 0.001203, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.714891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.188077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032516, "excess_performance": -0.083751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001203, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030407, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037937, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032516, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.505828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49652, "relative_activity": 2.645236, "balance": 0.505828, "dry_up": 1.427757, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031093, "annualized_volatility": 0.158345, "from_high_reference": -0.054279, "from_low_reference": 0.132465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.339446, "fair_value_reference": 44.714891, "structural_low": 48.400002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.019368, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.001383, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.121228, "worst_return": -0.035668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.033752, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.004993, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.083804, "worst_return": -0.028536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054362, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004183, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142153, "worst_return": 0.007046, "sufficient": true 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49.974998, "volume": 26899, "typical_volume": 17082.55, "trend": 50.04676, "fair_value": 44.575978, "relative_strength": -3.934952, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.001613, "energy": 5.614179, "activity_lines": [ 50.352333, 50.279545, 50.302286, 50.316131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.599998, "volume": 15629, "typical_volume": 17756.65, "trend": 50.20816, "fair_value": 44.645248, "relative_strength": -3.744003, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.325189, "energy": 13.179464, "activity_lines": [ 50.420666, 50.344272, 50.343309, 50.351824 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.400002, "volume": 49652, "typical_volume": 18770.35, "trend": 50.339446, "fair_value": 44.714891, "relative_strength": -4.188077, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.222932, "energy": 17.412772, "activity_lines": [ 50.430333, 50.378545, 50.365667, 50.364201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }