{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f54388f-2c76-4c9c-b9b1-28f94180cabc", "symbol": "MBC", "name": "MasterBrand Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 70.064, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.833, "architecture_energy": 15.841, "architecture_maturity": 28.692, "architecture_confidence": 59.282, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.91, "rotation_up": 17.07, "upward_expansion": 16.11, "deceleration": 59.75, "rotation_down": 46.81, "downward_expansion": 61.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.784667, 8.971636, 8.792524, 8.879871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.37, "trend_reference": 9.424, "distance_from_trend": -0.00573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.281474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.294506, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.652198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.310522, "excess_performance": -0.436147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069694, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.294506, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177356, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.282516, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12014262, "relative_activity": 0.873935, "balance": 1.282516, "dry_up": 0.727309, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115089, "annualized_volatility": 0.590727, "from_high_reference": -0.341069, "from_low_reference": 0.418622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.424, "fair_value_reference": 13.281474, "structural_low": 6.605, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.063617, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.071719, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.180498, "worst_return": -0.332465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.168121, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.17891, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.142986, "worst_return": -0.314685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.131605, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.24086, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.096833, "worst_return": -0.362009, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.207031, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147783, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060465, 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"typical_volume": 14734113.3, "trend": 9.967, "fair_value": 13.412692, "relative_strength": -25.649038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.065583, "energy": 22.781101, "activity_lines": [ 8.751333, 8.465818, 8.56, 9.189849 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.88, "volume": 18361200, "typical_volume": 15178469.05, "trend": 9.926667, "fair_value": 13.401474, "relative_strength": -16.536775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.622639, "energy": 15.547739, "activity_lines": [ 9.192, 8.719636, 8.636667, 9.184237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.88, "volume": 9314036, "typical_volume": 14616969.5, "trend": 9.884667, "fair_value": 13.393718, "relative_strength": -17.771714, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.909299, "energy": 21.928307, "activity_lines": [ 9.488, 8.957455, 8.731, 9.181226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.08, "volume": 9920161, "typical_volume": 14585136.35, "trend": 9.799, "fair_value": 13.373974, "relative_strength": -24.81267, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.746523, "energy": 19.206625, "activity_lines": [ 9.437333, 9.040364, 8.758238, 9.129312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.67, "volume": 8672564, "typical_volume": 14303106.5, "trend": 9.714333, "fair_value": 13.353654, "relative_strength": -26.505037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.137984, "energy": 15.683243, "activity_lines": [ 9.208667, 9.048727, 8.758048, 9.056473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.5, "volume": 8826642, "typical_volume": 13981523.9, "trend": 9.622, "fair_value": 13.330192, "relative_strength": -26.871091, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.122478, "energy": 13.575238, "activity_lines": [ 8.937333, 9.006909, 8.748571, 8.978129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.25, "volume": 10480745, "typical_volume": 13803560.9, "trend": 9.521, "fair_value": 13.303974, "relative_strength": -29.19199, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.448269, "energy": 25.256803, "activity_lines": [ 8.62, 8.892364, 8.717429, 8.889613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.37, "volume": 12014262, "typical_volume": 13747316.3, "trend": 9.424, "fair_value": 13.281474, "relative_strength": -21.652198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.832751, "energy": 15.840773, "activity_lines": [ 8.784667, 8.971636, 8.792524, 8.879871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }