{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f5c300f-4c83-418e-b3a5-3c5af5b09e85", "symbol": "HVN", "name": "Harvey Norman Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 94.641, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.643, "architecture_energy": 17.532, "architecture_maturity": 19.379, "architecture_confidence": 48.582, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.9, "rotation_up": 38.66, "upward_expansion": 34.01, "deceleration": 45.94, "rotation_down": 17.86, "downward_expansion": 44.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.886, 4.824909, 4.720863, 4.801691 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.05, "trend_reference": 5.068618, "distance_from_trend": -0.003673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.786892, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054964, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.551261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.189559, "excess_performance": -0.253265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121822, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054964, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091256, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189559, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.047382, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8441711, "relative_activity": 0.956918, "balance": 1.047382, "dry_up": 0.922432, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046458, "annualized_volatility": 0.266954, "from_high_reference": -0.324282, "from_low_reference": 0.179907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.068618, "fair_value_reference": 4.786892, "structural_low": 4.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016744, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000594, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.109208, "worst_return": -0.041861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043686, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020884, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.178808, "worst_return": -0.132772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054478, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.060596, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.239359, "worst_return": -0.164617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064018, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002128, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061798, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.402269, "energy": 22.300003, "activity_lines": [ 4.753333, 4.686182, 4.65937, 4.893645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.78, "volume": 7369853, "typical_volume": 10515618.4, "trend": 5.252892, "fair_value": 4.755871, "relative_strength": -18.484549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.966669, "energy": 17.306092, "activity_lines": [ 4.755333, 4.715455, 4.662696, 4.858888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.69, "volume": 6915379, "typical_volume": 10039728.3, "trend": 5.178225, "fair_value": 4.76508, "relative_strength": -19.604731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.874096, "energy": 21.866727, "activity_lines": [ 4.728, 4.722909, 4.661311, 4.822572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.92, "volume": 9823009, "typical_volume": 9720505.65, "trend": 5.115431, "fair_value": 4.775929, "relative_strength": -17.36416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.874116, "energy": 6.97985, "activity_lines": [ 4.786667, 4.766909, 4.684732, 4.805913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.05, "volume": 8441711, "typical_volume": 8821773.9, "trend": 5.068618, "fair_value": 4.786892, "relative_strength": -17.551261, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.643061, "energy": 17.532184, "activity_lines": [ 4.886, 4.824909, 4.720863, 4.801691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }