{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f5dd2f8-3f6b-47c2-97d0-040060fb8fd5", "symbol": "PETS", "name": "PetMed Express Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.853, "architecture_energy": 22.791, "architecture_maturity": 83.095, "architecture_confidence": 62.846, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.37, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 19.39, "deceleration": 46.42, "rotation_down": 24.05, "downward_expansion": 53.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.971333, 1.934364, 1.990238, 2.114258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.98, "trend_reference": 2.350333, "distance_from_trend": -0.157566, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.328654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.542583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.516329, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.3125, "excess_performance": -0.499954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157566, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0944, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.542583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027721, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315163, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.609812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 259186, "relative_activity": 0.117458, "balance": 8.609812, "dry_up": 0.239208, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112894, "annualized_volatility": 0.501744, "from_high_reference": -0.517073, "from_low_reference": 0.261146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.350333, "fair_value_reference": 4.328654, "structural_low": 1.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.026619, "positive_rate": 0.367347, "directional_follow_through": 0.632653, "median_excess_return": -0.036444, "regime_survival": 0.877551, "best_return": 0.982857, "worst_return": -0.319066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.088914, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.153281, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.534819, "worst_return": -0.374573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.142223, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.331292, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.138587, "worst_return": -0.532683, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.861022, "energy": 58.407531, "activity_lines": [ 1.838, 1.919091, 2.07919, 2.281634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.96, "volume": 840510, "typical_volume": 2197262.3, "trend": 2.543667, "fair_value": 4.617037, "relative_strength": -36.271628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.975759, "energy": 49.885781, "activity_lines": [ 1.89, 1.909636, 2.05281, 2.241871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.97, "volume": 790045, "typical_volume": 2214610.35, "trend": 2.489333, "fair_value": 4.544612, "relative_strength": -32.217392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.829672, "energy": 37.082932, "activity_lines": [ 1.926667, 1.908182, 2.032095, 2.20486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.99, "volume": 734680, "typical_volume": 2226527.8, "trend": 2.44, "fair_value": 4.468495, "relative_strength": -29.1894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.791372, "energy": 26.769881, "activity_lines": [ 1.962, 1.916, 2.016952, 2.172645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.95, "volume": 327449, "typical_volume": 2215002.25, "trend": 2.395, "fair_value": 4.397821, "relative_strength": -29.996566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.35742, "energy": 24.854645, "activity_lines": [ 1.968, 1.920909, 2.000952, 2.141032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.98, "volume": 259186, "typical_volume": 2206619.15, "trend": 2.350333, "fair_value": 4.328654, "relative_strength": -31.516329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.852563, "energy": 22.791314, "activity_lines": [ 1.971333, 1.934364, 1.990238, 2.114258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }