{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f5f1f7b-3ac1-45b6-9b01-0d674e0c2ca7", "symbol": "J85", "name": "CDL Hospitality Trusts", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.746, "architecture_energy": 45.914, "architecture_maturity": 58.612, "architecture_confidence": 88.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.6, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 6.92, "deceleration": 60.19, "rotation_down": 48.25, "downward_expansion": 80.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.759785, 0.760693, 0.771123, 0.784342 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.755, "trend_reference": 0.802407, "distance_from_trend": -0.059081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.819944, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.619658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122093, "excess_performance": -0.276928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079205, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858776, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11291400, "relative_activity": 1.928851, "balance": 0.858776, "dry_up": 1.614038, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025634, "annualized_volatility": 0.119969, "from_high_reference": -0.142045, "from_low_reference": 0.021214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.802407, "fair_value_reference": 0.819944, "structural_low": 0.739316, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.011561, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.014029, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.192307, "worst_return": -0.101998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026178, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.046459, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.221154, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.008197, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.087891, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.204177, "worst_return": -0.116643, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.049021, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052729, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031848, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006061, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.827903, "energy": 80.635874, "activity_lines": [ 0.755226, 0.762619, 0.77874, 0.792691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.758772, "volume": 9795700, "typical_volume": 5619725.0, "trend": 0.805516, "fair_value": 0.822655, "relative_strength": -19.486377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.457296, "energy": 74.405433, "activity_lines": [ 0.754341, 0.761084, 0.775589, 0.7896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.773364, "volume": 9061600, "typical_volume": 5724540.0, "trend": 0.804348, "fair_value": 0.821276, "relative_strength": -18.119745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.0298, "energy": 50.067978, "activity_lines": [ 0.760069, 0.762589, 0.774143, 0.787526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.755, "volume": 11291400, "typical_volume": 5853950.0, "trend": 0.802407, "fair_value": 0.819944, "relative_strength": -20.619658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.745659, "energy": 45.91439, "activity_lines": [ 0.759785, 0.760693, 0.771123, 0.784342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }