{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f5fee00-a8b7-42af-ac76-63ddf19014b2", "symbol": "601236", "name": "Hongta Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.757, "architecture_energy": 17.529, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.924, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.78, "rotation_up": 28.16, "upward_expansion": 18.17, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 20.4, "downward_expansion": 52.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.013333, 6.953636, 6.985496, 7.142499 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.01, "trend_reference": 7.387183, "distance_from_trend": -0.051059, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.555655, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.896428, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.122058, "excess_performance": -0.078854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051059, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072218, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078022, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122058, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496026, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68578820, "relative_activity": 1.086462, "balance": 0.496026, "dry_up": 1.373326, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046325, "annualized_volatility": 0.157785, "from_high_reference": -0.288044, "from_low_reference": 0.098746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.387183, "fair_value_reference": 7.555655, "structural_low": 6.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.007091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00587, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.186508, "worst_return": -0.231146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023319, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.003182, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.37693, "worst_return": -0.184372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.046847, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.029708, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.272792, "worst_return": -0.265145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.668738, "energy": 45.610613, "activity_lines": [ 6.86, 6.855199, 7.056207, 7.262083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.02, "volume": 90826003, "typical_volume": 63816882.2, "trend": 7.497664, "fair_value": 7.557244, "relative_strength": -8.182112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.023055, "energy": 33.112825, "activity_lines": [ 6.924667, 6.876521, 7.032799, 7.22854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.91, "volume": 107083910, "typical_volume": 64316847.85, "trend": 7.455655, "fair_value": 7.556153, "relative_strength": -10.299344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.150486, "energy": 25.45633, "activity_lines": [ 6.938, 6.883475, 7.003461, 7.190626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.12, "volume": 80255457, "typical_volume": 65482524.25, "trend": 7.42032, "fair_value": 7.555984, "relative_strength": -7.518112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.60286, "energy": 19.253008, "activity_lines": [ 7.006, 6.931091, 6.998216, 7.168971 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.01, "volume": 68578820, "typical_volume": 63121245.2, "trend": 7.387183, "fair_value": 7.555655, "relative_strength": -10.896428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.757405, "energy": 17.529434, "activity_lines": [ 7.013333, 6.953636, 6.985496, 7.142499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }