{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f61f089-f185-45c4-8c36-89cb50e57e5a", "symbol": "4080", "name": "Sinad Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.504, "architecture_energy": 61.773, "architecture_maturity": 9.857, "architecture_confidence": 82.574, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.38, "rotation_up": 16.97, "upward_expansion": 30.13, "deceleration": 46.39, "rotation_down": 73.45, "downward_expansion": 57.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.142, 8.396182, 8.626381, 8.611462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.98, "trend_reference": 8.610333, "distance_from_trend": -0.073207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.527564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.412338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.083812, "excess_performance": -0.051982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307746, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65592, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 795719, "relative_activity": 1.405132, "balance": 0.65592, "dry_up": 1.01357, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052439, "annualized_volatility": 0.193514, "from_high_reference": -0.272562, "from_low_reference": 0.05277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.610333, "fair_value_reference": 11.527564, "structural_low": 7.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.010791, "worst_return": -0.132988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.014407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100719, "worst_return": -0.129534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.023422, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266187, "worst_return": -0.219344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056899, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.198949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088643, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047674, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009926, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 12.36, "volume": 805742, "typical_volume": 713776.45, "trend": 11.750667, "fair_value": 16.950833, "relative_strength": -0.94273, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.329526, "energy": 26.067409, "activity_lines": [ 12.762667, 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8.738129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.6, "volume": 704405, "typical_volume": 535549.15, "trend": 8.643333, "fair_value": 11.652949, "relative_strength": -6.327603, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.48443, "energy": 15.493787, "activity_lines": [ 8.786667, 8.880545, 8.82581, 8.734129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.41, "volume": 431096, "typical_volume": 542989.45, "trend": 8.64, "fair_value": 11.622628, "relative_strength": -7.152112, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.329611, "energy": 11.96663, "activity_lines": [ 8.65, 8.782727, 8.801857, 8.719075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.19, "volume": 462357, "typical_volume": 547884.65, "trend": 8.635667, "fair_value": 11.589103, "relative_strength": -9.704092, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.13932, "energy": 37.278498, "activity_lines": [ 8.477333, 8.657091, 8.755048, 8.690043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.06, "volume": 606746, "typical_volume": 539408.3, "trend": 8.622333, "fair_value": 11.558077, "relative_strength": -8.883657, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.621627, "energy": 54.533672, "activity_lines": [ 8.298667, 8.525455, 8.695381, 8.652903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.98, "volume": 795719, "typical_volume": 566294.95, "trend": 8.610333, "fair_value": 11.527564, "relative_strength": -11.412338, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.503824, "energy": 61.773015, "activity_lines": [ 8.142, 8.396182, 8.626381, 8.611462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }