{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f640a40-7d20-45aa-a6cf-796c522f45de", "symbol": "EUESRI", "name": "UBS MSCI Europe Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.447, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.666, "architecture_energy": 89.032, "architecture_maturity": 23.814, "architecture_confidence": 71.231, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 80.39, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 9.42, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.046, 17.826691, 17.369038, 17.065449 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.046, "trend_reference": 16.8234, "distance_from_trend": 0.072673, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.455731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167593, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.132722, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071233, "excess_performance": -0.099658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032191, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067267, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071233, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006172, "annualized_volatility": 0.136429, "from_high_reference": -0.000111, "from_low_reference": 0.163657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.8234, "fair_value_reference": 15.455731, "structural_low": 15.508, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.013581, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.049711, "worst_return": -0.035109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00908, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.018046, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.090173, "worst_return": -0.029638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002304, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105637, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.126301, "worst_return": -0.020771, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.261317, "energy": 92.977968, "activity_lines": [ 17.051733, 16.610291, 16.391438, 16.379157 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 17.247999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 357.6, "trend": 16.347533, "fair_value": 15.227, "relative_strength": -8.80687, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.193779, "energy": 93.746701, "activity_lines": [ 17.153333, 16.786545, 16.46979, 16.438925 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 17.247999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 357.6, "trend": 16.394533, "fair_value": 15.253885, "relative_strength": -10.732044, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.732623, "energy": 91.069075, "activity_lines": [ 17.212799, 16.93309, 16.546838, 16.497019 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 17.247999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 300.4, "trend": 16.4368, "fair_value": 15.280769, "relative_strength": -7.62477, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.342124, "energy": 90.629025, "activity_lines": [ 17.230133, 17.049927, 16.622581, 16.552081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.247999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 143.0, "trend": 16.479066, "fair_value": 15.305897, "relative_strength": -9.948058, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.091646, "energy": 89.715031, "activity_lines": [ 17.241866, 17.137054, 16.696409, 16.604417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.046, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 150.5, "trend": 16.547933, "fair_value": 15.336141, "relative_strength": -5.103208, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 99.225008, "energy": 89.668766, "activity_lines": [ 17.513999, 17.339563, 16.843857, 16.705509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.046, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.5, "trend": 16.6168, "fair_value": 15.366385, "relative_strength": -3.504194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 96.307295, "energy": 97.661544, "activity_lines": [ 17.7268, 17.497854, 16.985123, 16.802159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.046, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.5, "trend": 16.685666, "fair_value": 15.396628, "relative_strength": -3.111416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.833769, "energy": 75.680025, "activity_lines": [ 17.8864, 17.630145, 17.120209, 16.894365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.046, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93.3, "trend": 16.754533, "fair_value": 15.426179, "relative_strength": -3.557835, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.727645, "energy": 85.947749, "activity_lines": [ 17.9928, 17.736436, 17.249114, 16.982129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.046, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93.3, "trend": 16.8234, "fair_value": 15.455731, "relative_strength": -6.132722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.666117, "energy": 89.031997, "activity_lines": [ 18.046, 17.826691, 17.369038, 17.065449 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }