{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f674116-8f57-4876-9da3-2f301de8ac1d", "symbol": "2240", "name": "Advanced Building Industries Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.417, "architecture_energy": 91.856, "architecture_maturity": 37.139, "architecture_confidence": 82.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.18, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 86.15, "downward_expansion": 99.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.730666, 30.732, 32.747619, 33.831699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 27.879999, "trend_reference": 35.481333, "distance_from_trend": -0.214235, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.170897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.432561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.313976, "excess_performance": -0.282147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214235, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105576, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221323, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.261167, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3595382, "relative_activity": 1.592048, "balance": 0.261167, "dry_up": 0.694334, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072509, "annualized_volatility": 0.334319, "from_high_reference": -0.365787, "from_low_reference": 0.056861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.481333, "fair_value_reference": 31.170897, "structural_low": 26.379999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.028846, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.010811, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.315155, "worst_return": -0.216987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041509, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.030855, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.397343, "worst_return": -0.349078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.105896, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.104076, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.64455, "worst_return": -0.432797, "sufficient": true }, 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169987, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.179241, "energy": 37.069558, "activity_lines": [ 34.493334, 34.707273, 35.347429, 36.057032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.759998, "volume": 1576275, "typical_volume": 2146779.15, "trend": 36.873333, "fair_value": 31.055961, "relative_strength": -8.685076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.050451, "energy": 48.370089, "activity_lines": [ 33.846667, 34.233818, 35.070666, 35.783225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.34, "volume": 674350, "typical_volume": 2134116.8, "trend": 36.671333, "fair_value": 31.108525, "relative_strength": -11.31136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.147281, "energy": 70.480183, "activity_lines": [ 32.932, 33.626545, 34.676952, 35.426236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.48, "volume": 856931, "typical_volume": 2115477.5, "trend": 36.362666, "fair_value": 31.134359, "relative_strength": -16.632162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.02557, "energy": 84.477332, "activity_lines": [ 31.613333, 32.812364, 34.131428, 34.962279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.92, "volume": 1145498, "typical_volume": 2112638.8, "trend": 35.961333, "fair_value": 31.147949, "relative_strength": -21.832797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.61051, "energy": 96.311265, "activity_lines": [ 29.762666, 31.622546, 33.375524, 34.353075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.879999, "volume": 3595382, "typical_volume": 2258338.2, "trend": 35.481333, "fair_value": 31.170897, "relative_strength": -20.432561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.417469, "energy": 91.855517, "activity_lines": [ 28.730666, 30.732, 32.747619, 33.831699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }