{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f6bd32f-cee4-4b93-bce7-ebddbdc3f1df", "symbol": "600143", "name": "Kingfa Sci. & Tech. Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.438, "architecture_energy": 39.877, "architecture_maturity": 46.249, "architecture_confidence": 85.321, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.76, "rotation_up": 16.62, "upward_expansion": 4.24, "deceleration": 50.61, "rotation_down": 55.41, "downward_expansion": 75.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.192667, 15.381885, 15.945407, 16.385142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.23, "trend_reference": 17.218619, "distance_from_trend": -0.057416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.508969, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.410205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.140611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151594, "excess_performance": -0.10839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05582, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.410205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.89312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 320452030, "relative_activity": 1.299687, "balance": 0.89312, "dry_up": 0.922151, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094475, "annualized_volatility": 0.433635, "from_high_reference": -0.325997, "from_low_reference": 0.324898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.218619, "fair_value_reference": 11.508969, "structural_low": 13.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.022442, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": -0.023345, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.099338, "worst_return": -0.200409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.061927, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.046979, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.198029, "worst_return": -0.385385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099422, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.058565, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.146016, "worst_return": -0.461461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 14.689333, 15.351706, 16.04206, 16.583545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.46, "volume": 209010947, "typical_volume": 241374436.5, "trend": 17.328952, "fair_value": 11.460684, "relative_strength": -9.790736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.494773, "energy": 61.021236, "activity_lines": [ 14.816, 15.2785, 15.951448, 16.456042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.23, "volume": 320452030, "typical_volume": 246560949.65, "trend": 17.218619, "fair_value": 11.508969, "relative_strength": -8.140611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.43774, "energy": 39.877477, "activity_lines": [ 15.192667, 15.381885, 15.945407, 16.385142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }