{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f77700e-3490-4660-8515-0b203df07d8c", "symbol": "ALCOX", "name": "Nicox S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.645, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.672, "architecture_energy": 17.781, "architecture_maturity": 13.201, "architecture_confidence": 60.599, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.17, "rotation_up": 22.39, "upward_expansion": 17.43, "deceleration": 37.77, "rotation_down": 29.92, "downward_expansion": 53.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3795, 0.377718, 0.380431, 0.387363 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.38, "trend_reference": 0.391333, "distance_from_trend": -0.028961, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.331773, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145361, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.350533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107872, "excess_performance": 0.05456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028961, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060428, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145361, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034965, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107872, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.107422, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1563801, "relative_activity": 1.908481, "balance": 1.107422, "dry_up": 0.890266, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056984, "annualized_volatility": 0.409353, "from_high_reference": -0.355932, "from_low_reference": 0.352313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.391333, "fair_value_reference": 0.331773, "structural_low": 0.3305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.045038, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.018076, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.309091, "worst_return": -0.27789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.10181, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.189655, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.390909, "worst_return": -0.472637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.422028, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.516432, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045455, "worst_return": -0.524887, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.278509, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.546784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227835, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.204724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.273026, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": 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0.377167, 0.375373, 0.383445, 0.388767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3755, "volume": 438495, "typical_volume": 888280.45, "trend": 0.38745, "fair_value": 0.332276, "relative_strength": -2.557919, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.964516, "energy": 9.581364, "activity_lines": [ 0.3763, 0.375218, 0.381698, 0.388158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.385, "volume": 416043, "typical_volume": 798997.8, "trend": 0.389867, "fair_value": 0.332033, "relative_strength": -1.778264, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.024445, "energy": 17.000073, "activity_lines": [ 0.3793, 0.376909, 0.381207, 0.388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.38, "volume": 1563801, "typical_volume": 819395.65, "trend": 0.391333, "fair_value": 0.331773, "relative_strength": -4.350533, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.671761, "energy": 17.781102, "activity_lines": [ 0.3795, 0.377718, 0.380431, 0.387363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }