{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f78b92c-4206-4124-9eba-515571ad8dd1", "symbol": "ABCL", "name": "Abcellera Biologics\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.056, "architecture_energy": 24.37, "architecture_maturity": 70.885, "architecture_confidence": 93.944, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.82, "rotation_up": 30.35, "upward_expansion": 62.53, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 26.74, "downward_expansion": 14.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.21, 6.399727, 5.929214, 5.377215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.93, "trend_reference": 4.7315, "distance_from_trend": 0.464652, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.961795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.749207, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 33.706904, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.193038, "excess_performance": 1.005584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.464652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225248, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.749207, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.448307, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.337069, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223239, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.193038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.191161, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27235021, "relative_activity": 0.861239, "balance": 1.191161, "dry_up": 0.790825, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184442, "annualized_volatility": 0.935619, "from_high_reference": -0.17891, "from_low_reference": 1.52459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.7315, "fair_value_reference": 3.961795, "structural_low": 2.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062192, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.096211, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.398104, "worst_return": -0.229013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030899, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.009008, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.303977, "worst_return": -0.255676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.234227, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.286003, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.182464, "worst_return": -0.28599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.405085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052486, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251716, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005682, "active": false 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4.972753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.465, "volume": 23851593, "typical_volume": 29973992.85, "trend": 4.5125, "fair_value": 3.971667, "relative_strength": 30.22188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.399034, "energy": 63.543148, "activity_lines": [ 6.943, 6.495455, 5.663762, 5.104882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.31, "volume": 23225746, "typical_volume": 30158588.6, "trend": 4.570167, "fair_value": 3.95641, "relative_strength": 9.072772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.029294, "energy": 42.378811, "activity_lines": [ 6.427333, 6.359, 5.697548, 5.156333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.71, "volume": 25720877, "typical_volume": 30798815.85, "trend": 4.646167, "fair_value": 3.954295, "relative_strength": 16.454203, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.851135, "energy": 22.320923, "activity_lines": [ 6.059667, 6.273091, 5.760571, 5.229871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.93, "volume": 27235021, "typical_volume": 31623082.4, "trend": 4.7315, "fair_value": 3.961795, "relative_strength": 33.706904, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.056182, "energy": 24.369539, "activity_lines": [ 6.21, 6.399727, 5.929214, 5.377215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }