{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f846cd7-45f6-465a-aa39-dbc8a51d882a", "symbol": "PYPL34", "name": "PayPal Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.58, "architecture_energy": 91.459, "architecture_maturity": 25.935, "architecture_confidence": 70.2, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.97, "rotation_up": 83.44, "upward_expansion": 97.66, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.688667, 13.511818, 12.6126, 12.340984 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.0, "trend_reference": 12.253015, "distance_from_trend": 0.224189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.193025, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.540198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.439784, "excess_performance": 0.496832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.224189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094964, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127553, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24345, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.420749, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.439784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.81123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34283, "relative_activity": 0.209317, "balance": 6.81123, "dry_up": 1.250515, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060762, "annualized_volatility": 0.46137, "from_high_reference": -0.292145, "from_low_reference": 0.501633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.253015, "fair_value_reference": 17.193025, "structural_low": 9.989127, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.065206, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068043, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.002424, "worst_return": -0.127987, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.079192, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.055729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.079192, "worst_return": -0.079192, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.225051, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.205382, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.225051, "worst_return": -0.225051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"fair_value": 17.192621, "relative_strength": -8.673409, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.70858, "energy": 71.914091, "activity_lines": [ 13.345333, 12.390928, 12.001159, 11.970625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3, "volume": 213727, "typical_volume": 170743.15, "trend": 12.266608, "fair_value": 17.192923, "relative_strength": -4.639959, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.033978, "energy": 83.894993, "activity_lines": [ 14.196667, 13.015878, 12.328665, 12.164637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.0, "volume": 34283, "typical_volume": 163784.9, "trend": 12.253015, "fair_value": 17.193025, "relative_strength": -2.540198, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.579603, "energy": 91.458533, "activity_lines": [ 14.688667, 13.511818, 12.6126, 12.340984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }