{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f84921d-bd0c-4bad-aa96-3f047621e3b3", "symbol": "FRVIA", "name": "Forvia SE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.917, "architecture_energy": 43.714, "architecture_maturity": 67.525, "architecture_confidence": 88.18, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.75, "rotation_up": 22.99, "upward_expansion": 5.86, "deceleration": 59.41, "rotation_down": 52.47, "downward_expansion": 79.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.0348, 9.085873, 9.5572, 9.923538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.116, "trend_reference": 10.752233, "distance_from_trend": -0.152176, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.718238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.222067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.064713, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.350712, "excess_performance": -0.404024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.222067, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.350712, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5374607, "relative_activity": 1.830406, "balance": 0.787107, "dry_up": 1.418239, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090745, "annualized_volatility": 0.461466, "from_high_reference": -0.39348, "from_low_reference": 0.080095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.752233, "fair_value_reference": 11.718238, "structural_low": 8.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.018434, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.019438, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.440442, "worst_return": -0.19551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.051072, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.076577, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.539742, "worst_return": -0.352028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.123487, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.267314, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.673735, "worst_return": -0.401019, "sufficient": true }, 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77.351629, "activity_lines": [ 9.133067, 9.632655, 9.9196, 10.489475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.706, "volume": 3477261, "typical_volume": 3063899.1, "trend": 11.235167, "fair_value": 11.94967, "relative_strength": -25.252464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.018826, "energy": 78.77274, "activity_lines": [ 8.948933, 9.4048, 9.787748, 10.316144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.736, "volume": 3566908, "typical_volume": 2974914.05, "trend": 11.0847, "fair_value": 11.861802, "relative_strength": -25.01802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.242099, "energy": 69.86972, "activity_lines": [ 8.8508, 9.213018, 9.674819, 10.154908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.31, "volume": 4238677, "typical_volume": 2889701.55, "trend": 10.927533, "fair_value": 11.787168, "relative_strength": -20.978282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.882678, "energy": 48.691088, "activity_lines": [ 8.995067, 9.1574, 9.624314, 10.040411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.116, "volume": 5374607, "typical_volume": 2936292.5, "trend": 10.752233, "fair_value": 11.718238, "relative_strength": -24.064713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.916934, "energy": 43.713595, "activity_lines": [ 9.0348, 9.085873, 9.5572, 9.923538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }