{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f899d67-b58c-4b47-a31f-31c9f929c4fd", "symbol": "FMN", "name": "Federated Hermes Premier Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.905, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.163, "architecture_energy": 16.423, "architecture_maturity": 47.311, "architecture_confidence": 76.325, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.34, "rotation_up": 25.96, "upward_expansion": 55.44, "deceleration": 87.04, "rotation_down": 34.4, "downward_expansion": 21.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.180163, 11.232899, 11.20469, 11.154991 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.19, "trend_reference": 11.103839, "distance_from_trend": 0.00776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.374996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078555, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.784007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008167, "excess_performance": -0.117458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00776, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011903, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078555, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02441, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008167, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.194197, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123193, "relative_activity": 1.080394, "balance": 1.194197, "dry_up": 0.979672, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021414, "annualized_volatility": 0.093689, "from_high_reference": -0.044619, "from_low_reference": 0.098989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.103839, "fair_value_reference": 10.374996, "structural_low": 10.525005, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.008305, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.016014, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.053842, "worst_return": -0.088761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001322, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.05105, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.07704, "worst_return": -0.048185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023964, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.101161, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.06904, "worst_return": -0.046259, "sufficient": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11.354053, "volume": 64997, "typical_volume": 107499.2, "trend": 11.077643, "fair_value": 10.339559, "relative_strength": -4.220896, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.691838, "energy": 51.86139, "activity_lines": [ 11.341771, 11.29198, 11.197325, 11.145465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.12, "volume": 161156, "typical_volume": 111480.45, "trend": 11.088978, "fair_value": 10.350585, "relative_strength": -5.54396, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.57668, "energy": 23.332361, "activity_lines": [ 11.269396, 11.270266, 11.198527, 11.148198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.1, "volume": 97486, "typical_volume": 111826.15, "trend": 11.095725, "fair_value": 10.362672, "relative_strength": -6.550571, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.241834, "energy": 14.290967, "activity_lines": [ 11.200315, 11.243665, 11.197725, 11.148909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.19, "volume": 123193, "typical_volume": 114025.95, "trend": 11.103839, "fair_value": 10.374996, "relative_strength": -8.784007, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.163117, "energy": 16.422911, "activity_lines": [ 11.180163, 11.232899, 11.20469, 11.154991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }