{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f8a86ab-b67a-420c-b396-3cbb08b30d25", "symbol": "WRV", "name": "WebRock Ventures AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.777, "architecture_energy": 75.376, "architecture_maturity": 23.196, "architecture_confidence": 88.36, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.69, "rotation_up": 9.78, "upward_expansion": 17.64, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 75.26, "downward_expansion": 93.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.839333, 3.040182, 3.256, 3.410344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.89, "trend_reference": 3.567667, "distance_from_trend": -0.189947, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.24645, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.601184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.02869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194986, "excess_performance": -0.25648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006498, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.601184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081205, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194986, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.261107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83552, "relative_activity": 2.314694, "balance": 0.261107, "dry_up": 2.294339, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129092, "annualized_volatility": 0.594817, "from_high_reference": -0.54127, "from_low_reference": 0.778462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.567667, "fair_value_reference": 7.24645, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.08046, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.087666, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.490196, "worst_return": -0.436404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002299, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.111177, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.022989, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.250376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022989, "worst_return": -0.022989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.165517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145946, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166234, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050794, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102484, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-09", "close": 17.75, "volume": 253977, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-16", "close": 21.0, "volume": 151434, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.984572, "energy": 22.378206, "activity_lines": [ 3.391333, 3.422, 3.568619, 3.618667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.31, "volume": 419, "typical_volume": 28134.1, "trend": 3.586333, "fair_value": 7.384606, "relative_strength": -19.876984, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.413597, "energy": 33.634281, "activity_lines": [ 3.362, 3.390727, 3.530476, 3.601484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.22, "volume": 12189, "typical_volume": 25039.25, "trend": 3.608, "fair_value": 7.35207, "relative_strength": -19.964812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.773597, "energy": 59.766892, "activity_lines": [ 3.292, 3.349818, 3.48819, 3.577849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.93, "volume": 23862, "typical_volume": 24953.15, "trend": 3.616, "fair_value": 7.317791, "relative_strength": -27.10428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.476064, "energy": 71.827171, "activity_lines": [ 3.156, 3.264727, 3.42319, 3.534108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.4, "volume": 211666, "typical_volume": 33782.45, "trend": 3.592333, "fair_value": 7.279962, "relative_strength": -39.945434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.339419, "energy": 84.889532, "activity_lines": [ 2.887333, 3.097636, 3.312714, 3.455656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.89, "volume": 83552, "typical_volume": 36096.35, "trend": 3.567667, "fair_value": 7.24645, "relative_strength": -28.02869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.776537, "energy": 75.376018, "activity_lines": [ 2.839333, 3.040182, 3.256, 3.410344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }