{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f8dc64f-d767-4405-b6bd-a2bcc3ba2d43", "symbol": "NVM", "name": "Novem Group S.A.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.694, "architecture_energy": 36.664, "architecture_maturity": 51.149, "architecture_confidence": 88.092, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.44, "rotation_up": 19.07, "upward_expansion": 5.21, "deceleration": 47.24, "rotation_down": 54.55, "downward_expansion": 73.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.564, 2.590909, 2.608333, 2.648258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.46, "trend_reference": 2.735333, "distance_from_trend": -0.100658, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.786696, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.486076, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.979843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174497, "excess_performance": -0.239136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100658, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.486076, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010349, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.700634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37179, "relative_activity": 1.163757, "balance": 0.700634, "dry_up": 1.785591, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065041, "annualized_volatility": 0.24886, "from_high_reference": -0.369231, "from_low_reference": 0.051282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.735333, "fair_value_reference": 4.786696, "structural_low": 2.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.025723, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.027158, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.317829, "worst_return": -0.187266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010381, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.031313, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.302387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051608, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.173586, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129568, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.101045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021472, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.809353, "energy": 22.541552, "activity_lines": [ 2.609333, 2.610545, 2.623143, 2.674602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.66, "volume": 64447, "typical_volume": 30844.45, "trend": 2.758667, "fair_value": 4.834147, "relative_strength": -15.358706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.927723, "energy": 19.921935, "activity_lines": [ 2.621333, 2.618909, 2.625143, 2.667527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.46, "volume": 37179, "typical_volume": 31947.4, "trend": 2.735333, "fair_value": 4.786696, "relative_strength": -22.979843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.694361, "energy": 36.663576, "activity_lines": [ 2.564, 2.590909, 2.608333, 2.648258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }