{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f8e0873-fc48-4e04-98d6-dabf68074430", "symbol": "AUCO", "name": "L&G Gold Mining UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.96, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.58, "architecture_energy": 24.257, "architecture_maturity": 43.603, "architecture_confidence": 55.658, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.82, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 17.5, "deceleration": 62.84, "rotation_down": 35.82, "downward_expansion": 65.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.594001, 85.757273, 88.768952, 92.18172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 98.370003, "trend_reference": 96.881999, "distance_from_trend": 0.015359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.522115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.771727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.343391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042535, "excess_performance": -0.159197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015359, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009657, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.771727, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176573, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.848826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33359, "relative_activity": 0.72652, "balance": 0.848826, "dry_up": 0.482559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076376, "annualized_volatility": 0.568126, "from_high_reference": -0.236969, "from_low_reference": 0.64912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.881999, "fair_value_reference": 55.522115, "structural_low": 76.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.042489, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.017322, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.169084, "worst_return": -0.074067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050417, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.034571, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.350272, "worst_return": -0.057112, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130314, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.159868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273155, "worst_return": -0.008009, "sufficient": false }, { 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96.444537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 83.059998, "volume": 18346, "typical_volume": 66328.0, "trend": 98.144333, "fair_value": 54.045769, "relative_strength": -14.433242, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.950148, "energy": 67.745237, "activity_lines": [ 85.860665, 87.665999, 92.16519, 95.455247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 77.870003, "volume": 14689, "typical_volume": 62126.4, "trend": 97.628333, "fair_value": 54.362276, "relative_strength": -20.563211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.70734, "energy": 73.347382, "activity_lines": [ 83.098, 85.479272, 90.410142, 94.147225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.18, "volume": 21815, "typical_volume": 55742.85, "trend": 97.186666, "fair_value": 54.717436, "relative_strength": -15.271154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.821408, "energy": 59.803127, "activity_lines": [ 82.644667, 84.66, 89.373142, 93.215075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.68, "volume": 18766, "typical_volume": 51365.95, "trend": 96.880333, "fair_value": 55.058622, "relative_strength": -19.683031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.80689, "energy": 67.577894, "activity_lines": [ 81.302, 83.402727, 88.128238, 92.085612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.370003, "volume": 33359, "typical_volume": 45916.15, "trend": 96.881999, "fair_value": 55.522115, "relative_strength": -2.343391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.579634, "energy": 24.256614, "activity_lines": [ 86.594001, 85.757273, 88.768952, 92.18172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }