{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f914b95-1c02-4999-b5bc-0e3a18052aeb", "symbol": "2220", "name": "National Metal Manufacturing and Casting Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.92, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.996, "architecture_energy": 28.397, "architecture_maturity": 14.125, "architecture_confidence": 91.812, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.64, "rotation_up": 17.64, "upward_expansion": 5.37, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 46.89, "downward_expansion": 71.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.918667, 12.042545, 12.067524, 12.115849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.01, "trend_reference": 12.337667, "distance_from_trend": -0.026558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.05391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.251896, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.291094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083206, "excess_performance": -0.051377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026558, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.251896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021269, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046644, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.001334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 478871, "relative_activity": 0.760755, "balance": 1.001334, "dry_up": 0.579956, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055146, "annualized_volatility": 0.243515, "from_high_reference": -0.350811, "from_low_reference": 0.12243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.337667, "fair_value_reference": 16.05391, "structural_low": 10.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.066533, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.059459, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.073482, "worst_return": -0.138204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.16599, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.14016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057292, "worst_return": -0.238106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.196569, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.118298, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.030543, "worst_return": -0.233548, "sufficient": true 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039956, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012837, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060985, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 20.16, "volume": 445467, "typical_volume": 349542.55, "trend": 19.544667, "fair_value": 26.148098, "relative_strength": 1.596661, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", 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"fair_value": 16.230256, "relative_strength": -10.976179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.98182, "energy": 15.950146, "activity_lines": [ 12.283333, 12.142909, 12.145952, 12.235204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.88, "volume": 272933, "typical_volume": 620222.65, "trend": 12.459333, "fair_value": 16.165769, "relative_strength": -13.090643, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.17623, "energy": 17.383949, "activity_lines": [ 12.166, 12.117818, 12.125095, 12.194387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.62, "volume": 387356, "typical_volume": 615479.95, "trend": 12.388, "fair_value": 16.107179, "relative_strength": -12.65333, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.257134, "energy": 27.656213, "activity_lines": [ 11.963333, 12.045455, 12.078619, 12.140237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.01, "volume": 478871, "typical_volume": 629467.8, "trend": 12.337667, "fair_value": 16.05391, "relative_strength": -11.291094, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.995965, "energy": 28.397166, "activity_lines": [ 11.918667, 12.042545, 12.067524, 12.115849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }