{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2f93c22a-2a77-4802-a44c-8de6e084d46f", "symbol": "280920", "name": "Hanwha Plus Leading Industry ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.181, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.374, "architecture_energy": 39.979, "architecture_maturity": 39.817, "architecture_confidence": 70.957, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.54, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 18.09, "deceleration": 62.17, "rotation_down": 71.97, "downward_expansion": 47.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 22444.666667, 24253.636364, 25540.423224, 24965.960803 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22220.0, "trend_reference": 23897.492839, "distance_from_trend": -0.070195, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13505.340019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.645275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.942794, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124791, "excess_performance": -0.105038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070195, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155595, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.645275, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.606862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026071, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124791, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.781396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8650, "relative_activity": 1.139125, "balance": 0.781396, "dry_up": 0.672413, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124766, "annualized_volatility": 0.451189, "from_high_reference": -0.308585, "from_low_reference": 0.805752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23897.492839, "fair_value_reference": 13505.340019, "structural_low": 17840.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013498, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.003966, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.190356, "worst_return": -0.055892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.080335, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001981, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.319758, "worst_return": -0.090546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07571, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.041672, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.828883, "worst_return": -0.136897, 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-0.090546, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010233, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019731, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.483144, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.279271, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028634, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8394.489258, "volume": 223, "typical_volume": 1631.8, "trend": 8391.373975, "fair_value": 9060.986359, "relative_strength": 3.328648, "stage": 2, 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27053.666667, 27921.545455, 26625.26237, 25249.072039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22875.0, "volume": 315, "typical_volume": 8450.5, "trend": 23374.002604, "fair_value": 13246.617701, "relative_strength": -13.019733, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.630997, "energy": 21.318102, "activity_lines": [ 25397.0, 26975.090909, 26400.468573, 25231.475941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22610.0, "volume": 5481, "typical_volume": 7414.55, "trend": 23587.787891, "fair_value": 13334.35863, "relative_strength": -12.034665, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.942278, "energy": 29.393208, "activity_lines": [ 24063.666667, 26057.090909, 26157.918778, 25182.18545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21770.0, "volume": 5978, "typical_volume": 7372.1, "trend": 23753.694141, "fair_value": 13418.086895, "relative_strength": -13.716434, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.273067, "energy": 40.390208, "activity_lines": [ 22994.333333, 25057.363636, 25829.606027, 25064.908812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22220.0, "volume": 8650, "typical_volume": 7593.55, "trend": 23897.492839, "fair_value": 13505.340019, "relative_strength": -6.942794, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.374055, "energy": 39.978711, "activity_lines": [ 22444.666667, 24253.636364, 25540.423224, 24965.960803 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }