{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fa156c0-e244-4041-8eed-fd726147aff0", "symbol": "QBNK", "name": "QBNK Holding AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.477, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.319, "architecture_energy": 40.158, "architecture_maturity": 16.512, "architecture_confidence": 86.112, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.79, "rotation_up": 68.75, "upward_expansion": 45.1, "deceleration": 27.27, "rotation_down": 14.49, "downward_expansion": 17.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.183333, 6.707273, 6.49381, 6.497527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.75, "trend_reference": 6.56, "distance_from_trend": 0.181402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.507756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.530902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131387, "excess_performance": 0.069892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.181402, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15553, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131387, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.396518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10198, "relative_activity": 0.532441, "balance": 5.396518, "dry_up": 2.069683, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115633, "annualized_volatility": 0.394918, "from_high_reference": -0.129213, "from_low_reference": 0.504854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.56, "fair_value_reference": 6.507756, "structural_low": 5.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.121878, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.135024, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.193548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.115848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.040323, "worst_return": -0.170642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.170642, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.258788, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048387, "worst_return": -0.354167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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6.241429, 6.368925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.85, "volume": 18118, "typical_volume": 19378.95, "trend": 6.561667, "fair_value": 6.473077, "relative_strength": -10.275212, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.752289, "energy": 14.814959, "activity_lines": [ 6.526667, 6.276364, 6.289762, 6.385376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.1, "volume": 20693, "typical_volume": 19043.15, "trend": 6.55, "fair_value": 6.490128, "relative_strength": -7.721345, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.995612, "energy": 23.929198, "activity_lines": [ 6.793333, 6.438182, 6.362143, 6.420108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.75, "volume": 10198, "typical_volume": 19153.3, "trend": 6.56, "fair_value": 6.507756, "relative_strength": -0.530902, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.319231, "energy": 40.157618, "activity_lines": [ 7.183333, 6.707273, 6.49381, 6.497527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }