{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fae132f-108a-4017-ad58-35f7addabd3d", "symbol": "DND", "name": "Dye & Durham Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.81, "architecture_energy": 75.375, "architecture_maturity": 60.617, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 13.83, "deceleration": 46.2, "rotation_down": 67.2, "downward_expansion": 91.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.034667, 1.225818, 1.86119, 2.413656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.93, "trend_reference": 3.057, "distance_from_trend": -0.69578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.496088, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.911396, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -82.069112, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.776978, "excess_performance": -0.8974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.69578, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.911396, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.820691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.776978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.200174, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1015000, "relative_activity": 1.091415, "balance": 0.200174, "dry_up": 1.9128, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.340364, "annualized_volatility": 0.773624, "from_high_reference": -0.920716, "from_low_reference": 0.273973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.057, "fair_value_reference": 10.496088, "structural_low": 0.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.015842, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.039369, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.439516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.028777, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.061982, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.60018, "worst_return": -0.69, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035122, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071552, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.409328, "worst_return": -0.397321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.628468, "energy": 91.894581, "activity_lines": [ 1.312, 1.664364, 2.379667, 2.849914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.24, "volume": 1097300, "typical_volume": 769025.0, "trend": 3.274667, "fair_value": 10.728273, "relative_strength": -77.616378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.077902, "energy": 88.693753, "activity_lines": [ 1.256667, 1.525455, 2.210429, 2.712344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.88, "volume": 3596700, "typical_volume": 914875.0, "trend": 3.165, "fair_value": 10.613952, "relative_strength": -83.280369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.216947, "energy": 86.102827, "activity_lines": [ 1.12, 1.353091, 2.02481, 2.557849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.93, "volume": 1015000, "typical_volume": 929985.0, "trend": 3.057, "fair_value": 10.496088, "relative_strength": -82.069112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.81032, "energy": 75.374938, "activity_lines": [ 1.034667, 1.225818, 1.86119, 2.413656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }