{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fb69460-9532-43a0-b4d0-2e6ff273e0df", "symbol": "JPSRT", "name": "UBS MSCI Japan Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hCHF dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.729, "architecture_energy": 63.318, "architecture_maturity": 81.89, "architecture_confidence": 77.059, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.07, "rotation_up": 54.63, "upward_expansion": 84.57, "deceleration": 68.49, "rotation_down": 28.56, "downward_expansion": 11.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.184668, 42.026183, 41.027048, 40.070965 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.900002, "trend_reference": 39.01772, "distance_from_trend": 0.0995, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.262309, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417605, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.173147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136571, "excess_performance": 0.053688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0995, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.417605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065074, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051731, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055248, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962513, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47966, "relative_activity": 5.887891, "balance": 0.962513, "dry_up": 2.264916, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02392, "annualized_volatility": 0.186189, "from_high_reference": -0.010951, "from_low_reference": 0.377932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.01772, "fair_value_reference": 30.262309, "structural_low": 34.950001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.013429, "positive_rate": 0.658537, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": -3e-06, "regime_survival": 0.756098, "best_return": 0.065621, "worst_return": -0.111362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011256, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.023467, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.19354, "worst_return": -0.051325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.075202, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.053184, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.223113, "worst_return": -0.089692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6176.2, "trend": 38.298603, "fair_value": 29.781915, "relative_strength": 7.521978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.576314, "energy": 90.0408, "activity_lines": [ 42.096, 41.362364, 39.937905, 39.18105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.490002, "volume": 5983, "typical_volume": 6238.8, "trend": 38.473641, "fair_value": 29.897803, "relative_strength": 3.800698, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.938884, "energy": 65.61234, "activity_lines": [ 41.989, 41.502273, 40.189191, 39.386946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.98, "volume": 453, "typical_volume": 6061.4, "trend": 38.661863, "fair_value": 30.015444, "relative_strength": 4.904214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.744814, "energy": 65.111808, "activity_lines": [ 41.978667, 41.684182, 40.475667, 39.613163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.705002, "volume": 19403, "typical_volume": 6677.05, "trend": 38.847216, "fair_value": 30.13623, "relative_strength": 3.865986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.463467, "energy": 59.248711, "activity_lines": [ 41.904334, 41.76691, 40.70762, 39.809495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.900002, "volume": 47966, "typical_volume": 8146.55, "trend": 39.01772, "fair_value": 30.262309, "relative_strength": 5.173147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.728949, "energy": 63.317598, "activity_lines": [ 42.184668, 42.026183, 41.027048, 40.070965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }