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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 87.212, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.508, "architecture_energy": 79.289, "architecture_maturity": 43.997, "architecture_confidence": 79.09, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.34, "rotation_up": 77.11, "upward_expansion": 90.14, "deceleration": 44.78, "rotation_down": 11.48, "downward_expansion": 19.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.754666, 53.081272, 51.600312, 50.144093 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 59.5, "trend_reference": 48.573077, "distance_from_trend": 0.224958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 74.745031, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20396, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.622052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.253475, "excess_performance": 0.200164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.224958, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042155, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20396, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139492, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.116221, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215847, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.253475, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.867214, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279881, "relative_activity": 1.080587, "balance": 1.867214, "dry_up": 1.322246, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072335, "annualized_volatility": 0.397571, "from_high_reference": -0.082734, "from_low_reference": 0.540756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.573077, "fair_value_reference": 74.745031, "structural_low": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 52.700001, "volume": 477401, "typical_volume": 287206.9, "trend": 47.811122, "fair_value": 75.140849, "relative_strength": 2.225299, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.543206, "energy": 19.279184, "activity_lines": [ 49.782666, 50.073818, 49.609489, 48.722762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.549999, "volume": 433002, "typical_volume": 288199.0, "trend": 48.208258, "fair_value": 74.941901, "relative_strength": 12.072564, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.291449, "energy": 57.826886, "activity_lines": [ 53.028666, 51.578363, 50.596945, 49.415593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.5, "volume": 279881, "typical_volume": 259008.25, "trend": 48.573077, "fair_value": 74.745031, "relative_strength": 11.622052, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.507656, "energy": 79.288528, "activity_lines": [ 55.754666, 53.081272, 51.600312, 50.144093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }