{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fc8a6de-1c84-4542-9d1b-ab346ce7333c", "symbol": "300494", "name": "Hubei Century Network Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.65, "architecture_energy": 55.621, "architecture_maturity": 99.579, "architecture_confidence": 87.991, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 27.84, "upward_expansion": 9.84, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 49.07, "downward_expansion": 80.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.407333, 8.448089, 9.106538, 9.850866 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.92, "trend_reference": 10.913633, "distance_from_trend": -0.182674, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.525449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.129843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.360573, "excess_performance": -0.367973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182674, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097995, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28785, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281298, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.360573, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.848248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108867138, "relative_activity": 2.482931, "balance": 0.848248, "dry_up": 1.580465, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089712, "annualized_volatility": 0.363879, "from_high_reference": -0.445274, "from_low_reference": 0.181457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.913633, "fair_value_reference": 12.525449, "structural_low": 7.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.015485, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.022426, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.317241, "worst_return": -0.114008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027206, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.085799, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.138153, "worst_return": -0.269129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.121161, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.122863, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.169118, "worst_return": -0.236842, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.59, "volume": 47124295, "typical_volume": 40897522.1, "trend": 11.136299, "fair_value": 12.636905, "relative_strength": -38.308064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.56665, "energy": 84.969498, "activity_lines": [ 8.065333, 8.445258, 9.354767, 10.154647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.53, "volume": 59752100, "typical_volume": 40451580.1, "trend": 11.0223, "fair_value": 12.574719, "relative_strength": -28.681777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.374427, "energy": 64.284305, "activity_lines": [ 8.178667, 8.397269, 9.203248, 9.986499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.92, "volume": 108867138, "typical_volume": 43846219.7, "trend": 10.913633, "fair_value": 12.525449, "relative_strength": -28.129843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.650322, "energy": 55.620958, "activity_lines": [ 8.407333, 8.448089, 9.106538, 9.850866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }