{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fcef271-cf37-47db-b800-cd79ba5812a3", "symbol": "WXBT", "name": "WisdomTree Physical Bitcoin", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.982, "architecture_energy": 38.466, "architecture_maturity": 61.769, "architecture_confidence": 63.388, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.66, "rotation_up": 25.54, "upward_expansion": 17.13, "deceleration": 66.21, "rotation_down": 39.85, "downward_expansion": 64.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 1134.6, 1128.181818, 1185.578571, 1213.262366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1150.5, "trend_reference": 1262.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.088593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1431.727889, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.475149, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05774, "excess_performance": -0.108975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118877, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196426, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05774, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.533664, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66354, "relative_activity": 0.771277, "balance": 0.533664, "dry_up": 0.902037, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060843, "annualized_volatility": 0.366792, "from_high_reference": -0.483038, "from_low_reference": 0.082824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1262.333333, "fair_value_reference": 1431.727889, "structural_low": 1062.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.006125, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.004535, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.478026, "worst_return": -0.382609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.149824, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.157923, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.892851, "worst_return": -0.285519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.150894, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.087639, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.589747, "worst_return": -0.469566, 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"volume": 55626, "typical_volume": 99231.55, "trend": 1294.483333, "fair_value": 1426.321274, "relative_strength": -31.766438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.599872, "energy": 50.44036, "activity_lines": [ 1130.383333, 1135.963636, 1205.845238, 1233.44086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1109.5, "volume": 37335, "typical_volume": 94516.85, "trend": 1278.283333, "fair_value": 1428.913658, "relative_strength": -33.771967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.637313, "energy": 44.591644, "activity_lines": [ 1126.4, 1126.009091, 1193.330952, 1221.506452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1150.5, "volume": 66354, "typical_volume": 86031.4, "trend": 1262.333333, "fair_value": 1431.727889, "relative_strength": -30.475149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.982421, "energy": 38.465806, "activity_lines": [ 1134.6, 1128.181818, 1185.578571, 1213.262366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }